March WASDE maintains 2024-’25 forecast for corn use in ethanol
The USDA maintained its 2024-25 corn use forecast for ethanol at 5.5 billion bushels, with no change to the season-average price of $4.35 per bushel. While U.S. production estimates remain unchanged, global shifts include higher output in India, Russia, and Ukraine, but declines in South Africa and Mexico. Brazil and South Africa’s exports are lowered, while Argentina’s are raised. Global ending stocks are revised down to 288.9 million tons, reflecting reductions in China and Argentina.
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2024-’25 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released March 11. The outlook for season-average corn price was also unchanged.
According to the USDA, the current 2024-’25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from the February WASDE. The forecasts for area planted and area harvested were maintained at 90.6 million acres and 82.9 million acres, respectively. Yield per harvested acre is expected to average 179.3 bushels.
The USDA maintained its forecast that corn use in ethanol will reach 5.5 billion bushels for 2024-’25, up slightly from the estimated 5.478 billion bushels of corn that went to ethanol production for 2023-’24. Corn use for fuel ethanol production was at 5.176 billion bushels for 2022-’23.
The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel.
Foreign corn production is projected higher, with increases for India, Russia, and Ukraine expected to be partly offset by declines for South Africa and Mexico. India is raised reflecting increases to both area and yield; the latest information from the government indicates greater planted area, while yield prospects are higher on exceptional kharif monsoon season rainfall. Russia is increased based on the latest data from Rosstat. Ukraine is raised based on updated harvest information. South Africa is reduced mostly reflecting lower area. Mexico is cut as lower winter corn yield expectations are partially offset by higher summer corn area.
Major global trade changes for 2024-‘25 include reduced corn exports for Brazil and South Africa. For 2023-‘24, Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2025 are lowered based on observed shipments to date. More than offsetting is an increase for Argentina. Corn imports for 2024-‘25 are cut for China and Taiwan but raised for Turkey, Vietnam, Colombia, and Egypt. Foreign corn ending stocks are lowered, mostly reflecting declines for China and Argentina that are partly offset by increases for Russia and India. Global corn ending stocks, at 288.9 million tons, are down 1.4 million.
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Source : Ethanol Producer Magazine
