New reports from USDA prove bearish for wheat
The USDA’s May 12 reports painted a bearish outlook for 2025–26 wheat. U.S. winter wheat output is forecast to rise 2% to 1.381 billion bushels, with higher yields and larger ending stocks. Globally, production is projected to hit a record 808.52 million tonnes. Increased output and rising stocks among major exporters are expected to pressure wheat prices.
U.S. Department of Agriculture reports released on May 12 provided a bearish picture for the wheat situation in 2025-26.
The Crop Production report provided the first glimpse of the yield potential of the 2025 U.S. wheat crop. Winter wheat production was forecast to be up by two per cent from last year.
In the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the international wheat output was forecast to reach a new record in the 2025-26-crop year.
The crop production report was the first surveyed production estimate of the year in the United States. It indicated that winter wheat production was expected to reach 1.381 billion bushels, which is 32.7 million bu. above last year’s output.
Yields for winter wheat were forecast at 53.7 bu. per acre, which are up by two bu. per acre.
Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat production was estimated at 784 million bu. which was up from the 770 million bu. produced last year. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat production was forecast at 345 million bu., while White Winter wheat (WW) production is expected to reach 253 million bu.
The SRW and WW wheat production estimates were up by one and seven per cent, respectively.
On the positive side, total wheat production in the U.S. is expected to drop by 50 million bu. to 1.92 billion bu. due to lower spring wheat area and production.
Despite the drop in production, U.S. wheat ending stocks are projected to increase by 82 million bu. to 923 million bu. The larger stocks will be bearish for U.S. futures.
The bearish numbers continued in USDA’s WASDE estimates of global wheat supply and demand.
Global wheat production is expected to reach 808.52 million tonnes, which would be a new all-time record. This is up by nine million tonnes from the output in 2024-25.
Ending stocks are slated to increase by 52,000 tonnes to 265.73 million tonnes. Increased production and ending stocks are certainly bearish signs for the wheat market.
Major exporters are expected to account for 8.8 million tonnes of the total global wheat production increase. This is even more negative for the market because the bulk of the increased global production is expected to be in the hands of exporters.
It will pressure markets during the crop year because increased competition will weigh on prices.
The ending stocks of wheat in major exporters are also expected to increase by two million tonnes during the upcoming crop year.
The bulk of the increase in exporters’ ending stocks is expected to end up in the U.S.
The USDA is essentially noting that the U.S. wheat will not be competitive in the world market.
Other exporters are expected to see minor increases or decreases in ending stock levels.
Canadian production is expected to increase by slightly more than one million tonnes to 36 million tonnes.
Canadian exports are expected to remain unchanged at 27 million tonnes (including durum), which will increase ending stocks by 300,000 tonnes to 4.39 million tonnes.
This is not bearish for Canadian wheat because ending stocks remain in the four to five million tonne range, which has been the range of Canadian wheat stocks over the past five years.
The USDA numbers are bearish for the wheat market, but it is important to remember that these estimates are subject to change, especially for spring sown crops in the Northern Hemisphere.
The wheat picture will become clearer in a few months as winter wheat crops are harvested. Until then, one can expect that wheat markets will be under significant pressure by the arrival of new crop supplies.
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Source : The Western Producer
