Nigeria set to boost corn, wheat imports in 2025/26: USDA
In MY 2025/26, Nigeria’s wheat imports are projected to rise to 6.7 MMT due to growing bread and baked goods demand, while corn imports may double to 260,000 t amid lower domestic output. Rice production is expected to fall 5% to 8.7 MMT, boosting rice imports to 3.2 MMT, despite rising consumption.
NIGERIA – Nigeria is expected to increase its wheat and corn imports in the 2025/26 marketing year as a more stable foreign exchange rate, improved consumer purchasing power, and lower global grain prices support trade flows.
This is according to the latest Grain and Feed Update published by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Rising wheat imports amid bread demand
Wheat imports are projected to reach 6.7 million tonnes in 2025/26, an increase from 6.25 million tonnes the previous year.
The report notes that Nigeria’s 2024 temporary zero-duty import policy provided millers with cheaper and more accessible wheat in the early months of 2025, a move that significantly improved their profit margins.
“As a result, many businesses have seen improved profit margins following the implementation of the temporary zero-duty import policy,” the FAS said.
Nigeria’s milling sector remains heavily reliant on wheat, with approximately 70% of flour consumed in the country used for bread production. The remaining portion is directed toward cakes, biscuits, and pastries.
Despite fluctuations in wheat prices, Nigeria’s per capita wheat consumption is estimated at 25 kilograms per year, exceeding the average per capita wheat consumption in West and Central Africa of approximately 20 kilograms.
This rising consumption is driven by increasing demand for foreign convenience foods, baked goods, and other wheat-based products such as bread, pasta, and noodles, which have become staple foods.
According to millers, less than one percent of the flour produced by major milling companies includes domestically grown wheat. This is largely due to the low protein content of locally produced wheat, which makes it unsuitable for many wheat-based food products.
The European Union continues to dominate Nigeria’s wheat supplies, holding about 45% of the market share. However, U.S. wheat has staged a strong comeback.
In MYs 2023/24 and 2024/25, Nigeria was not among the top ten customers for U.S. wheat. However, in the current marketing year, Nigeria has risen to become the 5th largest customer. Competitive U.S. pricing, a stable foreign exchange rate, and the improved macroeconomic situation in Nigeria are driving the rebound in U.S. wheat exports to Nigeria.
From January to June 2025, U.S. wheat exports to Nigeria surged by 246% to US$139.5 million, compared with US$40.3 million during the same period in 2024. The FAS attributed this rebound to competitive U.S. pricing, a more stable naira, and an improved macroeconomic environment.
Corn imports double as production stalls
Corn imports are also forecast to rise sharply, reaching 260,000 tonnes in 2025/26 compared with 125,000 tonnes a year earlier. This increase is being driven by both stabilizing foreign exchange conditions and lower domestic production.
Between January and July 2025, U.S. corn exports to Nigeria totaled around 85,000 tonnes. This is notable because there had been no U.S. corn shipments to Nigeria during the same period in the previous two years.
Interestingly, the FAS highlighted that nearly half of these imports were delivered after Nigeria’s duty waiver policy ended in May 2025, suggesting that favorable international prices, rather than government incentives, were behind the surge in demand.
FAS has revised its MY 2025/26 corn production forecast to 11.9 MMT, a slight decrease from the April 2025 forecast of 12 MMT. This adjustment is attributed to an estimated reduction in the area harvested, driven by the high cost of inputs that discourages farmers even as competitively priced imports provide buyers with alternatives.
FAS-Lagos estimates MY 2025/26 corn consumption at 12.2 MMT, unchanged from Post’s April 2025 forecast.
Rice production declines by 5%
FAS estimates MY 2025/26 rice production at 8.7 MMT, a five percent decrease compared to MY 2024/25 projection of 9.2 MMT. This projection reflects an expected decrease in the area planted, ongoing insecurity in key producing regions, and the elevated cost of inputs.
Informal imports of lower-priced rice from India and Thailand are tempering domestic prices, while competition among millers has reduced profit margins. Cottage mills, closer to producers, account for 50 percent of Nigeria’s rice mills, unlike larger mills mostly operating well below full capacity.
FAS-Lagos projects MY 2025/26 planted area at 4.2 MMT a seven percent decrease compared to the MY 2024/25 estimate of 4.5 MMT. According to contacts, the lack of finance for farmers is a larger concern than insecurity.
Despite declining production, rice consumption is forecast to reach 8.6 MMT, representing a five percent increase compared to the prior year projection of 8.2 MMT, driven by informal rice imports and improved consumer purchasing power.
To meet this demand, Nigeria is expected to import 3.2 MMT of rice, representing a five percent increase compared to the prior year’s estimate of 2.9 MMT.
FAS-Lagos projects sorghum production for MY 2025/26 to remain steady at 7.3 MMT, consistent with the Post’s April 2025 forecast.
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Source : Milling MEA
