No spike in food inflation likely: Food Secretary
India’s food inflation hit a 42-month low at 1.78% in April 2025, driven by bumper wheat and rice production. Wheat procurement reached 29.64 million tonnes, easing storage concerns. Despite rising global edible oil prices, domestic food prices remain stable. The government expects no major spikes and will continue strong MSP procurement and PDS allocations to support market stability.
Even as food inflation is at a multi-year low, the government does not foresee any spike in prices of agricultural commodities over the next few months , food secretary Sanjeev Chopra said.
“With bumper production of wheat and rice, from the point of food inflation, I do not see any concern. We are expecting a much better crop next year,” Chopra told FE. This augurs well for the monetary easing cycle that is currently under way. Though subdued prices could adversely affect farmers, robust procurement at minimum support prices could come to their aid. Retail food inflation dropped to a 42nd month low to 1.78% in April, 2025 on year, as prices of vegetables, pulses, meat, fish and spices declined with the arrival of crop.
However, the rise in global prices pushed up prices of mustard oil and refined oil to 19.6% and 23.75% respectively last month as the country imports about 58% of its edible oil consumption.
Rise in edible oil prices were because of higher global prices and hike in import duties, Chopra said.
Food minister Prahalad Joshi said “from 522 centres or cities, we received the price information of the local market, overall inflation and food prices are at the lowest,”. Joshi was speaking to reporters at the sideline of the event to launch three initiatives — the depot darpan portal, and digital platforms Anna Mitra, and Anna Sahayata.
Meanwhile, the government’s wheat procurement by agencies—Food Corporation of India (FCI) and various state procurement bodies—for the 2025–26 rabi marketing season (April–June) has crossed 29.64 million tonne (MT), highest since the 2021-22 season.
With only purchase operations continuing in only Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, the total wheat purchase under minimum support price (MSP) is likely to be around 30 MT, Chopra said. The government has set a target of 33 MT of wheat purchase for the current season.
The quantity of wheat purchased from farmers in key producing states so far is 11% higher than during the same period last year. This procurement is against total mandi arrivals of 38.88 MT across the country which also indicate purchases by private entities.
This augurs well as the government will have sufficient grain for distribution through a public distribution system and carry out a market intervention programme under In comparison, wheat procurement stood at 26.6 MT in 2024–25 and 26.2 MT in 2023–24 seasons.
On the possibility of storage crunch from the beginning of new paddy procurement season from October because of surplus rice stock, Chopra said the issue about the storage of rice is no longer, which was the position three to four months back.
“From June onwards, we will be allocating rice for PDS till the new arrivals starts coming a couple of months after commencement of the new procurement season from October 1,” he said.
In the central pool, the FCI at present has 38 MT of rice besides an additional 22 MT of rice is receivable from the farmers against buffer norm of 13.58 MT for April 1.
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Source : Financial Express
