Philippine raw sugar output to remain flat—USDA
USDA projects Philippines’ 2026 raw sugar output steady at 2.09 MMT despite RSSI infestations. Losses in Negros are offset by new Mindanao areas. Demand stays at 2.2 MMT, imports at 194,000 MT, with no exports allowed under current government policy.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects the country’s raw sugar production in the current crop year to remain flat at 2.09 million metric tons (MT), nine-percent higher than the government’s official projection.
In a Nov. 26 report by the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), domestic sugar output for marketing year (MY) 2026 is expected to remain unchanged from the 2.09 million MT in the previous MY.
The country’s MY recently changed to begin on Oct. 1 and end on Sept. 30 of the following year. Under the previous Sept.-1-to-Aug.-31 schedule, the USDA also projected that production would stay flat.
The foreign agency attributed the flat growth to sugarcane infestation from the spread of red-stripe soft scale insect (RSSI), a sap-sucking insect that could reduce sugar content by as much as 50 percent.
The Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) reported on Sept. 11 that RSSI has affected an estimated 6,333 hectares (ha) of sugarcane farms.
Negros Island, which accounts for 65 percent of the country’s total sugar output, reported infestation in 5,000 ha, or 79 percent of total.
“[RSSI is] affecting some parts of Negros Island, especially the northern part and these areas are expected to produce sugarcane with lower sucrose content depending on the extent of RSSI infestation,” the USDA said.
“Favorable crop development in southern Negros is expected to compensate for the decrease in production caused by RSSI infestation in the northern part,” it added.
Under Sugar Order (SO) No. 1 dated Sept. 17, SRA also cited the spread of RSSI for its estimate of the country’s raw sugar production at 1.92 million MT.
The sugar agency likewise cited excessive rainfall in Negros Island in recent months as a potential drag on production.
The USDA, however, is not projecting a decline in production due to the emergence of new sugarcane areas in Mindanao, following the conversion of some banana plantations.
It expects a total sugarcane area of 400,000 ha in the MY, up from 392,356 ha in the previous year. Sugarcane output is seen reaching 25 million MT from 24 million MT.
The foreign agency also anticipates that the country’s sugar demand will remain flat at 2.2 million MT, as higher sugar prices and broader economic conditions discourage growth in consumption.
Half or 50 percent of local sugar demand is driven by industrial players, with households accounting for 32 percent and institutional users for 18 percent.
As previously announced by SRA, there will be no importation of sugar until the end of the current milling season, or the second quarter of 2026.
Still, the USDA expects the country to import refined sugar of approximately 194,000 MT, carried over from the approved importation of 424,000 MT in MY 2025.
The foreign agency said the country will not have any sugar exports in the present marketing year, aligned with SO 1, which ruled that the entire sugar output will be for domestic consumption.
“This policy reflects the government’s focus on ensuring sufficient supply for the domestic markets,” the USDA said.
“The elevated stock levels of raw sugar, however, make it likely that SRA will announce another import/export program, as has been the case in the past two years,” it added.
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Source : Manila Bulletin
