Philippine rice imports seen at 5.1 million MT as supply gaps persist—USDA
United States Department of Agriculture projects Philippines rice imports to rise 15.9% to 5.1 million tonnes in 2026–27, driven by supply gaps and rising demand. Despite slight production growth, higher costs and stock rebuilding needs will keep the country reliant on imports to stabilise prices and ensure food security.
The Philippines’ rice imports may increase to over five million metric tons (MT) in the upcoming marketing year (MY) 2026-2027 to plug the shortfall in domestic production, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In a report, the USDA estimated that the country’s rice imports would increase by 15.9 percent to 5.1 million MT in MY 2026-2027, compared to the projected 4.4 million MT for the current MY 2025-2026.
The upcoming MY for rice begins in July this year and ends in June next year.
The USDA attributed the increase in the country’s rice purchases abroad to the need to meet the gap in rice stocks from the current MY, which fell to 2.9 million MT from the previous year’s 2.95 million MT.
“The government and commercial importers and traders will rebuild stocks from domestic production and imports to manage supply and price risks,” the report read.
The USDA earlier estimated that the country would lower rice imports to 4.4 million MT in the current MY from 5.4 million MT during MY 2024-2025. The decline was attributed to the four-month import ban during the latter half of last year.
The foreign agency also pointed to the country’s growing population, which is boosting demand for major food commodities and increasing reliance on imported rice.
Rice consumption is expected to inch up to 17.65 million MT from 17.6 million MT in the upcoming MY, which may only slow down if retail prices are deemed too high for Filipinos, prompting a shift to other carbohydrate sources.
Local rice production is anticipated to improve slightly to 19.68 million MT from 19.6 million MT, driven largely by favorable weather conditions and continued government support for cultivation.
The USDA, however, said this growth could be moderated by rising input costs, such as fertilizers, due to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.
It noted that government interventions, such as fuel subsidies and higher buying prices from the National Food Authority (NFA), would be vital in supporting the projected growth in domestic output.
The USDA said its projection of rice imports may be tempered within the year as the Philippine government moves to implement a price-indexed rice import tariff system.
Under this system, the government may adjust tariffs imposed on imported rice between 15 percent and 35 percent based on international prices for five-percent broken rice from Vietnam, the most commonly imported variety.
This new quarterly mechanism aims to stabilize retail rice prices and ensure national food security, while helping local farmers sell rice at a fair price.
According to the USDA, some farmers are wary of this new policy, as it may inadvertently encourage market speculation, with price information potentially prompting the withholding of stocks in anticipation of further price changes.
“Meanwhile, some stakeholders continue to advocate reinstating the 35-percent import tariff to provide greater protection for the local rice industry,” it said.
While this has not yet been implemented, the Department of Agriculture (DA) has been securing voluntary commitments from importers and traders to limit their rice imports to levels that would not depress farmgate prices.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel said the industry would import only around 300,000 MT for the months of March and April, after earlier securing commitments to bring in just 600,000 MT in the prior two months.
The expected import volume of around 900,000 MT for the first four months has since been exceeded by 30 percent, based on data from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) as of March 26.
BPI data showed that a total of 1.17 million MT of foreign rice had arrived in the country, 84 percent of which came from Vietnam.
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Source : Manila Bulletin
