Philippine wheat imports to rise amid higher consumption, says USDA
The USDA now projects Philippine wheat imports for MY 2025/26 at 7.2 million MT, up from last month’s 6.9 million MT, driven by higher food, seed, and industrial consumption. Feed wheat remains the main driver. Corn imports are lowered to 1.9 million MT, while rice imports stay at 4.9 million MT due to the ongoing 60-day ban.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that the Philippines will import more wheat in the current market year (MY), driven by higher consumption, changing course from last month’s projected decline.
In its September report on the global grains market, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) expects Philippine wheat imports to reach 7.2 million metric tons (MT) within MY 2025 to 2026.
The wheat MY for the Philippines starts in July and ends in June of the following year.
The USDA’s latest projection is based on “higher expected food, seed, and industrial consumption.”
In last month’s report, the foreign agency estimated that the country’s wheat imports will fall to 6.9 million MT from an initial 7.2 million MT due to reduced feed consumption.
The USDA’s September forecast marked the fourth-straight revision for Philippine wheat import estimates.
In May, the USDA said imports would rise from 7.2 million MT to 7.4 million MT, before readjusting the figure back to 7.2 million MT the following month.
The USDA’s constant updating of its outlook reflects the volatility in wheat demand, which is influenced by shifting consumption patterns and feed substitution.
The Philippines is not conducive to wheat production and relies solely on imports to meet its wheat supply needs.
The country imports both milling wheat for human consumption and feed wheat for animal feed.
Feed wheat, in particular, is seen as the biggest driver in the country’s demand for wheat.
The USDA said in a previous report that demand depends on local feed manufacturers, as they could substitute feed wheat for feed corn partly due to its physical attributes and fattening qualities.
Feed wheat is used as a multipurpose feed ingredient and often serves as a replacement for feed corn when wheat prices are more favorable than those of feed corn, or in instances where there are supply gaps.
In the second half of 2024, the USDA reported that imported feed wheat was priced higher than imported corn by $12.22 to $48.41 per MT.
The foreign agency estimated that the Philippines imported 6.35 million MT of feed wheat in MY 2024 to 2025, which covered the second half of last year.
In terms of corn, the country is expected to import 1.9 million MT, down from the previous estimate of two million MT. Based on the report, corn imports reached 1.65 million MT in the past MY.
Demand for corn will be supported by an estimated production of 8.3 million MT, well within the range of 8.33 million MT recorded in 2024 to 2025.
Meanwhile, the USDA has kept its Philippine rice import forecast at 4.9 million MT for the year from an initial projection of 5.4 million MT due to the 60-day import ban, which has been in effect since Sept. 1.
Based on the latest data from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI), foreign rice arrivals have reached 2.95 million MT before the ban’s implementation.
The USDA also retained its projection for rice imports next year to reach 5.5 million MT, which will cement the Philippines’ position as the world’s top rice importer for the fourth consecutive year.
“Low global prices and a reduced import tariff encouraged large volumes of rice imports. In June 2024, amid high domestic prices, the Philippine government reduced the most favored nation (MFN) import rate for rice from 35 percent to 15 percent,” the USDA noted.
“More than 3.3 million tons were exported to the Philippines in January to August 2025, mostly from Vietnam. Despite the harvest of the new crop, Philippine rice imports are expected to resume in November as global prices are expected to remain competitive to domestic supplies,” according to the report.
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Source : Manila Bulletin
