Philippines faces rice crisis amid Vietnam’s rising export prices, domestic production decline
Vietnam’s shift toward premium rice like ST25 threatens Philippine rice security. Heavy reliance on Vietnam for imports exposes consumers to price shocks as export prices rise. Declining domestic production, low farmgate prices, and land conversion worsen risks, underscoring the need for irrigation expansion, price support, and protection of farmland urgently.
The Philippines is entering a precarious phase in its rice security.
Vietnam’s ST25 rice, which won global recognition as the “World’s Best Rice” in 2019, is now being cultivated on a much larger scale, signaling a shift in Vietnam’s export strategy toward premium varieties. As hectarage expands, Vietnamese producers are expected to command higher export prices, especially as global demand for high-quality rice rises in markets such as China, Europe, and the Middle East.
For the Philippines, this is particularly alarming because around 90 percent of its rice imports are from Vietnam, making the country highly vulnerable to price shocks. If ST25 and other Vietnamese varieties double in price, Filipino households—already burdened by inflation—will face significant increases in the cost of their staple food.
This vulnerability is compounded by the Philippines’ declining domestic rice production, driven by two structural issues: depressed farmgate prices and ongoing land conversion. Prime irrigated lands continue to be converted for commercial and residential use, reducing the country’s capacity to achieve self-sufficiency.
Analysts caution that without decisive government intervention—such as enforcing the floor price under Executive Order 100, expanding irrigation to recover 500,000 hectares, and halting land conversion—the Philippines risks deepening its dependence on imports at a time when global rice markets are tightening.
In this context, Vietnam’s rise as a premium rice exporter is not just a success story for its farmers but a looming crisis for Philippine food security, underscoring the urgent need for proactive policy measures.
Domestically, rice farmers are struggling with palay prices at ₱12–15/kg, far below the production cost of ₱17–20/kg. This mismatch has left farmers discouraged, as they cannot recover their investments.
The government’s “Bente Pesos Rice” program under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (BBM), which pegs rice affordability at ₱20/kg, has inadvertently influenced palay pricing, further depressing farmgate values. While Executive Order 100 prescribes a floor price, it lacks implementing rules and regulations (IRR), coupled with the National Food Authority’s (NFA) insufficient budget and warehouse capacity, rendering the measure ineffective. Without institutional support, farmers remain vulnerable to market distortions and import-driven competition.
Beyond pricing, land conversion has eroded prime irrigated rice areas, diminishing the country’s capacity for self-sufficiency. Ironically, the lands being converted are the same irrigated zones critical for sustaining production.
Experts estimate that 500,000 hectares need irrigation rehabilitation, a figure that mirrors the areas lost to conversion. This structural decline in arable land undermines long-term food sovereignty, as the Philippines becomes increasingly dependent on imports to fill the gap.
The convergence of these factors—Vietnam’s rising export prices, depressed local farmgate values, weak institutional support, and continued land conversion—creates a perfect storm for a rice crisis.
Policymakers, currently preoccupied with budget hearings, risk overlooking this urgent issue. A comprehensive strategy is needed: (1) enforce EO 100 with clear IRR and adequate NFA funding, (2) halt land conversion in prime irrigated areas, (3) invest in irrigation for 500,000 hectares, and (4) diversify import sources to reduce dependence on Vietnam. Without decisive action, the Philippines will face both higher rice prices and deeper farmer disillusionment, jeopardizing food security and rural livelihoods
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Source : Inquirer Net
