Philippines : Raw sugar output seen flat next year
Philippines’ raw sugar output is projected to stay flat at 1.85 million MT in MY 2026 due to stagnant cane area amid land conversions, says USDA-FAS. Despite falling mill prices, farmers are expected to keep planting, while demand remains steady at 2.2 million MT. Imports may reach 300,000 MT, with no raw sugar exports to the U.S. anticipated.
MANILA, Philippines — The country’s raw sugar output in the upcoming market year (MY) 2026 may remain flat at 1.85 million metric tons (MT) as planted areas are expected to stagnate amid land conversions, according to an international report.
The US Department of Agriculture-Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) in Manila estimated that raw sugar output in the current MY 2025 (from October 2024 to September 2025) would hit 1.85 million MT, nearly four percent over the 1.78 million MT government projection.
“Post forecasts sugarcane area to remain flat in MY 2026. There are limited areas for expansion that can replace the continuous conversion of agricultural land to residential and industrial uses,” USDA-FAS Manila said in a report.
“Farmers will continue to plant sugarcane despite the downward trend of mill site prices in MY 2025 in anticipation of increases in MY 2026,” it added.
The international agency projected that total sugarcane area harvested would remain at 389,000 hectares, with cane output estimated at 21.8 million MT.
It said the country’s raw sugar demand is expected to remain flat for the third consecutive market year at 2.2 million MT as elevated prices discourage an uptick in consumption.
The country’s domestic sugar demand is divided into three main segments: household (32 percent), institutional (18 percent) and industrial (50 percent).
The country may import 300,000 MT of refined sugar in the next MY as a result of previous government programs that provided eligible entities with import privileges if they voluntarily buy raw sugar at higher prices as well as if they will export some stocks to the US market, the report said.
The international agency does not see the country exporting any raw sugar to the US in MY 2026.
“Post forecasts ending stocks to remain high in MY 2026 but will decline modestly year-on-year. Sugar withdrawals continue to be low compared to previous years,” USDA-FAS Manila said.
“Raw inventory is expected to be high at the start of the milling season. With the ongoing harvest, there will be a buildup of raw sugar if it is not sold in the market,” it added.
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Source : Philstar Global
