Rain Watch for July 4-10: Monsoon bridges gap, kharif sowing begins
India’s monsoon rainfall has improved, with cumulative rainfall from June 1 to July 7 at 2% above the long period average, according to IMD data. Sowing of kharif crops like paddy, cotton, oilseeds, and sugarcane has begun, with overall acreage at 24.1 million hectares, up from 18.2 million hectares last year. Pulses sowing has seen a significant jump, boding well for this year’s crop. Reservoir levels, currently at 22% of total capacity, are expected to improve with continued rainfall. IMD forecasts an “above normal” monsoon in July.
Showers in the beginning of July helped bridge the deficit in overall rainfall this monsoon and improved the sowing of essential kharif crops. However, the excess rainfall also resulted in floods in some regions.
From the period June 1 to July 7, rainfall levels are in ‘normal’ range on a cumulative basis of 2 percent above the long period average (LPA), as per Barclays analysis of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data. This compares to an 11 percent deficit as on June 30. The IMD expects an ‘above normal’ monsoon in July.
“The monsoon trough is active and near to its normal position in lower tropospheric levels,” IMD says. The forecaster estimates isolated extremely heavy rainfall in a few parts of north-eastern India with localised flooding of roads. Damage to horticulture and standing crops in some areas due to inundation, and riverine flooding in some river catchments are also expected.
Sowing has begun in major kharif crops such as paddy, cotton, oilseeds and sugarcane. As of June 28, overall acreage was 24.1 ha mn (around 22 percent of normal area) compared with 18.2 ha mn (million hectares) in the previous year at the same stage. In particular, areas sown with pulses shows a significant jump, which bodes well for the crop this year considering the lower production in 2023. A major portion of sowing is done in the July and August period. Upcoming weeks will remain crucial in terms of distribution of rainfall and its impact will be reflected on kharif sowing.
With excess rainfall in almost all the regions over the past week, reservoir levels are likely to improve, but may still remain below the historical trend in the near term, unless the current rainfall activity maintains the same intensity, says Barclays.
As of July 4, storage in 150 reservoirs stood at about 22 percent of total capacity, which is slightly higher than the 20 percent in the previous week. This translates to 79 percent of the live storage of the corresponding period of last year and 90 percent of normal storage.
Source Link : https://www.forbesindia.com/article/news/rain-watch-for-july-410-monsoon-bridges-gap-kharif-sowing-begins/93596/1
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