Record harvests and trade wars shaped agricultural markets in 2025
Global agriculture in 2025 saw abundant wheat, corn and soybean harvests, boosting stocks and pressuring prices. U.S.–China trade tensions weakened demand and reshaped flows, hurting U.S. soybeans while strengthening Brazil’s dominance. Corn remained a U.S. stronghold. Beef prices surged amid a shrinking cattle herd and resilient consumer demand throughout 2025.
The year 2025 became one of oversupply in global agricultural markets, as strong harvests of corn, soybeans and wheat broadly met growing world demand and kept prices in check. This was highlighted in an analytical review by Karen Braun, a senior agricultural analyst at Reuters. At the same time, demand remained the key source of uncertainty, pressured by intensifying trade tensions, particularly between the United States and China.
The global grain market experienced a genuine boom. In the 2025/26 season, most leading wheat exporters harvested crops at least 10% larger than a year earlier. This drove world wheat stocks outside China up by 13.5% — the largest annual increase in 16 years — pushing Chicago wheat prices below $5 per bushel for the first time in more than five years. High production levels and weakening profitability could ultimately lead to reduced wheat acreage in the United States and Russia in the 2026/27 season.
The corn market presented a more nuanced picture. While total global corn stocks fell to a 12-year low, according to USDA estimates, they rose to a six-year high when China is excluded. At the same time, record production and the risk of softer demand from the livestock sector could limit further market growth in the 2026/27 season.
The U.S. share of global soybean exports continued to decline. Renewed trade tensions with China early in 2025 effectively halted U.S. soybean shipments to China for about six months. Although exports partially resumed toward the end of the year following agreements between Washington and Beijing, analysts question whether these deals will be sufficient to provide meaningful support for U.S. farmers.
Meanwhile, Brazil has further strengthened its position, increasing soybean production by 40% since the 2018 trade war. In the 2025/26 season, the United States is projected to account for only 24% of global soybean exports — a record low — while Brazil’s share could climb to a record 60%.
In contrast to soybeans, corn remains an area of U.S. dominance. Corn acreage in the country reached nearly 99 million acres, the highest level in 89 years, while yields exceeded the long-term trend for the first time in seven years. The United States is expected to control around 40% of global corn exports in the 2025/26 marketing year, far ahead of Brazil.
The beef market has shown a distinct dynamic. The U.S. cattle herd shrank to a 75-year low, driving prices sharply higher, yet consumer demand has remained resilient. At the same time, U.S. agricultural trade with China in 2025 fell to its lowest level in two decades in inflation-adjusted terms, underscoring the depth of structural changes underway in global agricultural trade.
To Read more about Wheat News continue reading Agriinsite.com
Source : Ukr Agro Consult
