Reduced demand is driving down vegetable oil prices.
Global edible oils face mixed trends: palm oil oversupply depresses prices; soybean oil steady on Indian pre-orders; sunflower oil tight due to Ukraine-Russia export cuts. Sugar sees record global production, pressuring prices. Wheat, maize, and rice markets influenced by China, India, and Ukraine. Ethanol policies and biofuel mandates shape demand and feedstock use.
Uncertainty over the Trump administration’s biofuel support policy led to a 5.4% weekly drop in Chicago soybean oil futures, adding to pressure on related oils. Meanwhile, the market expects a sharp decline in palm oil prices, driven by rising inventories, declining exports, and a sharp decline in crude oil prices.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) plans to publish final rules for its 2026 and 2027 renewable fuel volume obligations (RVOs) during the first quarter of 2026, even though the market had been expecting them as early as the third quarter of 2025, according to a filing with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on December 15.
It should be noted that the issue of renewable fuel volumes has repeatedly become a speculative reason for the rise and fall of prices for soybean oil , which is the basis for biodiesel production in the United States, throughout 2025 .
Favorable weather for soybean planting in South America and slow sales of soybeans from the United States to China have caused soybean prices to drop by 8% in a month and are putting pressure on soybean oil prices.
December soybean oil futures on the CBOT fell 5.4% in a week to $1,086 per tonne, and are trading 6.4% lower than a month ago, amid uncertainty over biofuel production volumes and falling soybean prices.
The price of soybean oil in Brazil fell by $10-15/t over the week to $1095-1100/t FOB, while the price in China fell by $20/t to $1165-1170/t.
Prices for sunflower oil with delivery to India fell by $5/t to $1,320-1,325/t CIF Mumbai during the week, under pressure from a fall in the price of Russian sunflower oil (for delivery in December) by $10-15/t to $1,190-1,195/t.
Bid prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine (with delivery to ports in December) fell by $10/t over the course of the week to $1,220/t amid rising supply and declining demand.
February Brent crude futures fell 2.5% yesterday to a 4.75-year low of $59 a barrel, down 5% for the week and 8% for the month, putting pressure on biofuel and feedstock prices.
January palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia fell 3.6% this week to 3,962 ringgit/t or $970/t, weighed down by lower exports, but will be further impacted by falling oil prices this week.
According to surveyors, Malaysian palm oil exports from December 1 to 15 decreased by 15.9–16.4% compared to the previous month, leading to a further increase in Malaysian inventories. Furthermore, the strengthening of the ringgit against the dollar is keeping palm oil prices higher than soybean oil, encouraging importers to purchase high-quality soybean oil over palm oil.
Therefore, we expect a sharp decline in palm oil prices under pressure from falling oil prices, as well as a corresponding decline in prices for related oils.
To Read more about Edible Oil News continue reading Agriinsite.com
Source : Ukr Agro Consult
