Rice production lags behind population growth
Experts warn that despite a 1.2% projected rise in Bangladesh’s rice production for 2024/25, reaching 39.5 million tonnes, the growth rate still lags behind the population increase of 1.3% annually. This shortfall fuels concerns of a rice crisis, prompting forecasts of 0.4 million tonnes of imports next year. Despite conflicting reports on local rice sufficiency, government officials claim adequate production amidst adverse weather conditions, with current stocks reported at 0.9806 million tonnes as of June 23, 2024.
Rice production in the country is not increasing compared to the population growth, which results in a crisis and rising prices of the staple food, said experts.
Bangladesh may see a 1.2% increase in rice production in 2024/25 compared to the previous year, according to the Food Outlook June 2024 of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
They forecast that the production of rice may increase to 39.5 million tonnes in 2024/25 from 39 million tonnes in 2023/24 in Bangladesh.
The FAO outlook also forecasts that the country may import 0.4 million tonnes in 2024.
Dr Jahangir Alam Khan, an agro-economist and researcher, told the Daily Sun that the population of Bangladesh is increasing by 1.3% per year so the demand for rice is also increasing.
He said, “In the last three consecutive years, the average growth rate of rice production was 0.52% per year which was not keeping up with the population growth rate. The price of rice increases when the production rate is lower than the expected level. Then, the country needs to import rice to fulfil the local demand.”
“The price of rice in the international market is higher so it is difficult to meet the local demand with import.”
He also said the annual demand for rice in the country is around 36-37 million tonnes. Of these, 30 million tonnes are needed for human consumption, and 6-7 million tonnes for non-consumption uses like seed, feed, wastage, and processing.
The country apparently produces more than the local demand, but still a crisis arises as some millers, businessmen and farmers hoard it, said the economist.
However, Agriculture Ministry Secretary Wahida Akter said, “We are keeping up with the rice production according to demand despite the adverse climatic conditions. The ministry takes a plan to achieve the desired rice production target despite many adverse weather conditions.
“We achieved a good harvest in Boro season this year defying the flash flood and cyclone Remal. Our production of rice is higher than the demand, so there is no crisis of rice.”
According to The Ministry of Food, the government has a stock of 0.9806 million tonnes of rice as of 23 June 2024.
According to the FAO outlook, the global rice production is forecast to expand by 0.9% in 2024/25 to reach a fresh peak of 534.9 million tonnes.
In their list of biggest rice producers, Bangladesh has secured the third place for the seventh consecutive year, while India was second and China first.
Asia is expected to account for much of the production expansion envisaged for 2024/25, with an aggregate harvest of 478.9 million tonnes, up 0.6% from 2023/24.
Within the region, Bangladesh, India, and the Philippines are all seen gathering record crops on the back of improved growing conditions and strong government support.
Source Link : https://www.daily-sun.com/post/754687
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