Russia forecasts record low wheat exports in May
Russian wheat exports are expected to drop to 1.8 million tonnes in May 2025 — the lowest in recent times — down from 2.4 million tonnes in April. SovEcon attributes the decline to slower domestic and international sales, logistical issues, and rising global competition. Despite high stock levels, no domestic price surge is expected. Export-dependent regions may face price pressures.
The SovEcon think tank estimates Russian wheat exports in May 2025 at 1.8 million tonnes, a record low compared to 2.4 million tonnes in April and 1.9 million tonnes in March, Reuters reported. The decline reflects a general slowdown in Russian wheat sales on both international and domestic markets.
In the first quarter of 2025, farmers sold only 7.9 million tonnes of wheat on the domestic market, down 26% from 10.7 million tonnes in the same period last year, SovEcon said. Wheat stocks held by farmers, harvesters and processors in southern Russia, a key export region, fell to 4.7 million tonnes, down 49% from a year earlier.
Despite the significant stocks of producers and processors, SovEcon experts consider them still quite large and do not predict an increase in domestic prices for wheat. Analysts attribute the decline in exports to increased competition on the world market, in particular due to increased production in other countries, such as India, and possible logistical constraints.
The reduction in supplies could put additional pressure on prices in regions dependent on Russian grain, such as the Middle East and North Africa.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
