Russia to introduce zero export duty on wheat, corn and barley starting December 10
Russia has scrapped export duties on wheat, corn, and barley from December 10 to support farmers amid falling revenues. However, grain shipments dropped 13.3% year-on-year, pressured by the stronger ruble and global oversupply. With record world grain production and lower prices, the move is unlikely to reverse declining exports.
Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, has set a zero export duty on wheat, corn, and barley effective from December 10. The move is aimed at supporting domestic farmers amid declining export revenues, but it comes as shipments continue to fall sharply. From July to November 2025, Russian grain exports dropped 13.3% year-on-year, from 30.1 million tonnes to 26.1 million tonnes, making it unlikely that the country will repeat last season’s record volumes.
The removal of the export duty is unlikely to fully reverse the downward trend. Russian exporters are facing additional pressure from the ruble’s sharp appreciation, which strengthened from 101 to 76 rubles per dollar over the past year, reducing local-currency earnings even as global prices remain stable. While November saw a modest increase in shipments, it was insufficient to offset the decline in previous months, and the profitability of the agricultural sector continues to fall.
Global market conditions also add to the challenge. The FAO forecasts a record world grain production of over 3 billion tonnes in 2025, with global stocks expected to rise to 925.5 million tonnes by the end of the 2026 season. On this backdrop of oversupply, the FAO cereal price index fell 5.3% year-on-year in November, further complicating Russia’s position as a major grain exporter.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
