Russian wheat exports to decline by 17% in December – experts
Russian wheat exports are forecasted to decline in December, with estimates ranging between 3.3-3.5 million tonnes, down 17% from November’s 4.1 million tonnes. This decrease is attributed to rising export duties, which have led to a negative margin for exporters, and adverse weather conditions in regions like Krasnodar. SovEcon analysts estimate total wheat exports for the 2024/25 season at 44.1 million tonnes, below the USDA’s 48 million-tonne estimate. This slowdown could support global wheat prices.
According to the forecast of SovEcon analysts, the export of Russian wheat in December this year will amount to 3.3-3.5 mln tonnes against 4.1 mln tonnes in November. Thus, at the end of the current month, Russian wheat exports will decrease by 17% month-on-month against the background of lower exporters’ margins.
As experts note, the exporters’ margin has been decreasing in recent weeks against the background of the duty growth. At the moment it is negative against about 10 a month ago. The export duty on grain is currently 4872 rubles/t ($47 per tonnes) against 2569 rubles/t ($26 per tonnes) a month earlier.
“Against this background, sales of Russian wheat have slowed down. On December 9, the volume of concluded contracts for wheat sales amounted to 0.8 mln tonnes, which was the lowest since April this year,” the report said.
In addition, weather conditions are also a deterrent to exports. On December 10, a storm warning was announced in the Krasnodar region, which may lead to a slowdown in shipments.
Overall, SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports in the 2024/25 season at 44.1 mln tonnes, while the US Department of Agriculture’s estimate currently stands at 48 mln tonnes.
“We believe that the market may overestimate the volume of Russian exports in the current season, and expect that a significant slowdown in Russian exports may support global quotations,” the analysts summarized.
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Source : Apk Inform
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