South Africa remains with sufficient maize supplies for our annual needs
South Africa’s maize harvest for 2023-24 is estimated at 13.06 million tonnes, a 21% decrease from last season due to mid-summer droughts. Despite the decline, the expected harvest will meet the country’s annual consumption of 12 million tonnes, with an additional 1.85 million tonnes projected for export. These exports, though lower than the previous season, will mainly support Southern Africa.
This afternoon, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee lowered its estimate for the country’s 2023-24 maize harvest by 2% from last month to an estimated 13,06 million tonnes. This is 21% down from last season. This sharp decline in harvest prospects signifies the harsh impact of the mid-summer drought.
Of the current estimate, white maize is about 6,19 million tonnes (down 3% m/m), with yellow maize at 6,87 million tonnes (down 2% m/m).
This expected harvest will meet South Africa’s annual maize consumption of roughly 12,00 million tonnes, leaving the country with a sizable volume for export markets. Data from the South African Grains and Oilseed Supply and Demand Estimates Committee suggests that exports could reach 1,85 million tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year (this corresponds with the 2023-24 production season).
This may sound significant following a challenging season with a somewhat poor harvest, but there is a boost in supplies from the carryover stocks from the previous season. In this export forecast, about 1,20 million tonnes will likely be white maize, with 650k tonnes could be yellow maize. Still, the estimated exports of 1,85 million tonnes are down notably from 3,40 million tonnes in the previous 2023-24 marketing year (this corresponds with the last 2022-23 production season).
These exports will primarily be for the Southern Africa region. In fact, between May and mid-August 2024, South Africa had already exported 655k tonnes out of the expected 1,85 million tonnes. The principal beneficiary is Zimbabwe and a range of neighbouring African countries.
Also worth noting is that while South Africa will likely remain the net exporter of maize in the 2024-25 marketing year (which corresponds with the 2023-24 production season), the coastal regions will import small volumes of yellow maize for animal feed because of price advantage. We have recently seen the imports of yellow maize from Argentina through Cape Town.
South Africa’s 2024-25 maize imports currently stand at 134k tonnes. The imports for the year (2024-25 marketing year) could rise to 350k tonnes. Brazil is another potential supplier of yellow maize to South Africa. Notably, after accounting for these potential imports, South Africa will remain a net maize exporter.
Importantly, these figures are still tentative. There may still be adjustments in the coming months, particularly on white maize export forecasts. We are in a tricky season with a lot of unknowns.
To read more about the news about the Maize News continue reading Agriinsite.com
Source Link : https://wandilesihlobo.com/2024/08/28/south-africa-remains-with-sufficient-maize-supplies-for-our-annual-needs/
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