Sugar Prices Slip As USDA Projects Higher Brazil Sugar Production
Raw sugar slipped again: May NY #11 fell 0.28 % to 19.06 ¢/lb and Aug London white lost 0.49 % to $506 / t. Pressure came from USDA‑FAS projecting Brazil’s 2025/26 output up 2.3 % to 44.7 MMT and a 2 % drop in crude, which could shift cane from ethanol to sugar. Gains from a firmer real and lower Indian output faded.
May NY world sugar #11 (SBK25) Wednesday closed down -0.05 (-0.28%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) closed down -2.50 (-0.49%).
Sugar prices Wednesday gave up an early advance and settled moderately lower after the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production would rise +2.3% y/y to 44.7 MMT from 43.7 MMT in the previous season.
Weakness in crude prices also weighed on sugar. Wednesday’s -2% fall in WTI crude oil (CLM5) undercuts ethanol prices and may prompt global sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol, thus boosting sugar supplies.
Sugar prices Wednesday initially moved higher due to strength in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL), which rallied to a 2-1/2 week high against the dollar, discouraging export selling from Brazil’s sugar producers.
Sugar prices also have positive carryover from last Thursday on news of reduced sugar output in India after the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reported that India’s sugar production from Oct 1-Apr 15 was 25.5 MMT, down -18% from the same period last year.
Sugar prices were on the defensive last week, with NY sugar posting a 2-1/2 year nearest-futures low last Tuesday and London sugar posting a 3-month low last Wednesday. The outlook for abundant rain in India that leads to a bumper sugar crop is undercutting sugar prices. Last Tuesday, India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences projected an above-normal monsoon this year, with total rainfall forecast to be 105% of the long-term average. India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.
Also, weighing on sugar prices is a concern that the global trade war will undercut world economic growth and that tariffs will raise sugar prices for consumers, curbing demand.
Also, on the negative side, consultant Datagro on March 12 projected that 2025/26 Brazil Center-South sugar production would climb +6% y/y to 42.4 MMT. In addition, Green Pool Commodity Specialists on February 5 projected that the worldwide sugar market will shift to a surplus of +2.7 MMT in the 2025/26 crop year from its estimate of a deficit of -3.7 MMT in 2024/25.
In a bearish factor, the Indian government said on January 20 that it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 MMT of sugar this season, easing the restrictions placed on sugar exports in 2023. India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supplies. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to September 30 after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season. However, the ISMA projects that India’s 2024/25 sugar production will fall -17.5% y/y to a 5-year low of 26.4 MMT.
The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. Last Friday, Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar production rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest sugar exporter.
Signs of lower global sugar production are supportive of prices. Unica reported last Monday that the cumulative 2024/25 Brazil Center-South sugar output through March fell by 5.3% y/y to 40.169 MMT. On March 12, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association cut its 2024/25 India sugar production forecast to 26.4 MMT from a January forecast of 27.27 MMT, citing lower cane yields.
Meanwhile, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) on March 6 raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to -4.88 MMT from a November forecast of -2.51 MMT, showing a tightening market from the 2023/24 global sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. The ISO also cut its 2024/25 global sugar production forecast to 175.5 MMT from a November forecast of 179.1 MMT.
Drought and excessive heat last year caused fires in Brazil that damaged sugar crops in Brazil’s top sugar-producing state of Sao Paulo. Green Pool Commodity Specialists noted that as much as 5 MMT of sugar cane may have been lost due to the fires. Last Thursday, Conab, Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, projected 2024/25 Brazil sugar production to fall -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report released November 21, projected that global 2024/25 sugar production would climb +1.5% y/y to a record 186.619 MMT and that global 2024/25 human sugar consumption would increase +1.2% y/y to a record 179.63 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2024/25 global sugar ending stocks would decline -6.1% y/y to 45.427 MMT.
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Source : Barchart
