Sugar Prices Slump on Expectations of Stronger Brazil Sugar Output
Global sugar prices fell sharply on Monday as expectations of higher output in Brazil and India pressured the market. Dry weather in Brazil is aiding cane crushing, with mills focusing more on sugar than ethanol. Meanwhile, forecasts for better monsoons and expanded acreage in India may boost its 2025/26 sugar output by 25%, further weighing on prices.
October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Monday closed down -0.45 (-2.68%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) closed down -13.50 (-2.77%).
Sugar prices settled sharply lower Monday on the outlook for higher sugar production in Brazil. Datagro said Monday that dry weather in Brazil has encouraged the country’s sugar mills to increase their cane crushing, diverting more of the cane crush toward more profitable sugar production rather than ethanol. According to Covrig, Brazil’s sugar mills are expected to crush 54% of the available cane in the first half of this month, likely adding 3.2 MMT of sugar into the market.
Sugar prices have retreated over the past three months, with NY sugar falling to a 4.25-year low earlier this month and London sugar sliding to a nearly 4-year low, driven by expectations of a sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season. On June 30, commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT, with global sugar ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.
Last Friday, NY sugar posted a 1.5-month high and London sugar posted a 1.75-month high, driven by signs of stronger global sugar demand. China’s June sugar imports soared by 1,435% to 420,000 MT. Also, President Trump last Wednesday said Coca-Cola agreed to use cane sugar in Coke beverages sold in the US instead of high-fructose corn syrup, which could boost US sugar consumption by +4.4% to 11.5 MMT from 11 MMT currently, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Sugar prices also have support from reduced sugar production in Brazil. Unica reported last Monday that the cumulative 2025/26 Brazil Center-South sugar output through June fell by -14.3% y/y to 12.249 MMT. Last month, Conab, Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, said 2024/25 Brazil sugar production fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat.
The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world’s second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. On June 2, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. That would follow a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar production in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). Also, the ISMA reported on July 7 that India’s sugar production during Oct 1-May 15 fell -17% y/y to 25.74 MMT.
Sugar production in India is expected to benefit from forecasts for above-normal rains during the monsoon season (June-Sep). Last Monday, the India Meteorological Department reported that India’s rainfall in June was 9% above normal and forecasted above-normal rain for July.
The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. On May 2, Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar production rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high of -5.47 MMT on May 15, up from a February forecast of -4.88 MMT. This indicates a tightening market following the 2023/24 global sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. ISO also cut its 2024/25 global sugar production forecast to 174.8 MMT from a February forecast of 175.5 MMT.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report released May 22, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would climb +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2025/26 global sugar ending stocks would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production would rise +2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT due to favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar production will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
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