Thailand : Tepid forecast for 2026 rice shipments
Thai rice exports in 2026 are forecast at 7.5 million tonnes amid weak demand and increased global supply, especially from India. White rice exports have fallen, though hom mali remains strong. Prices may drop further as India releases large stocks. Industry leaders urge investment in productivity and new varieties instead of continued subsidies.
The rice export outlook for 2026 appears subdued due to several negative factors, as exporters expect to ship 7.5 million tonnes of rice next year.
Charoen Laothamatas, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said the production of in-season rice for 2025/26 is expected to reach 24 million tonnes. Rice exports this year as of Oct 27 totalled 6.4 million tonnes, a 22% year-on-year decline.
He said white rice exports significantly decreased due to the resumption of exports by India, an increased global rice supply and import halts by major buyers such as Indonesia and the Philippines.
Exports of Thai white rice fell by 43% to 2.9 million tonnes from January to Oct 27, and domestic prices have continually decreased.
However, shipments of Thai hom mali rice have performed well, exceeding 1.49 million tonnes, an 11% year-on-year increase. The major importers were the US, Hong Kong and Canada.
Mr Charoen said total rice exports could reach nearly 8 million tonnes this year, surpassing the initial target of 7.5 million tonnes.
The association maintains its export target for next year at 7.5 million tonnes, including 3.5 million tonnes of white rice, 1.7 million tonnes of hom mali rice, 1.4 million tonnes of parboiled rice, 600,000 tonnes of Thai fragrant rice and 300,000 tonnes of sticky rice.
He said several challenges lie ahead for Thai rice exports, including the need to develop new rice varieties to meet global demand, production and logistics costs, baht volatility and government support.
“The price subsidy does not address longer-term issues,” said Mr Charoen.
“The government has allocated more than 100 billion baht for price subsidies annually, but this budget would be better spent on improving rice production, such as enhancing the irrigation system, developing eco-friendly rice plantations and planning marketing strategies that align with changing global trade regulations.”
Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the association, said Thai rice prices are expected to fall next year in line with the global market, potentially even lower than this year’s prices.
The main negative factor is India’s plan to release about 20 million tonnes of milled rice.
“Foreign traders projected white rice prices could fall to US$300 per tonne, marking a 30-year low. This means farmers might receive about 5,000 baht per tonne of unmilled rice,” he said.
However, lower prices for Thai white rice and parboiled rice have made them more competitive, opening new market opportunities, said Mr Chookiat.
The price for 5% Thai white rice ranges from $330-340 per tonne, while prices for Indian rice average $350, Pakistan’s grains are at $330-340 and Vietnam’s rice $360-370.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, India is projected to be the world’s top rice exporter in 2026 with a volume of 25 million tonnes, followed by Vietnam with 7.9 million tonnes and Thailand 7.2 million tonnes.
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Source : Bangkok Post
