Thailand’s rice exports slide 24% as India, Vietnam boost global competition
Thailand’s rice exports dropped 24% to 7.5 million tonnes in 2024-25 due to fierce competition from India and Vietnam. White rice shipments fell sharply, while parboiled and fragrant varieties held strong. Exports are expected to remain flat next year. Production stays high with stable stocks, supporting domestic price stability.
THAILAND – Thailand’s rice exports fell to 7.5 million tonnes in 2024-25, a sharp 24% drop from the 9.9 million tonnes shipped the previous year, according to the latest update from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
The drop reflects intensifying global competition, particularly from India’s re-entry into international markets and larger Vietnamese rice supplies, which have squeezed Thailand’s share in the high-volume white rice segment.
The FAS report shows that during the first half of the 2024-25 marketing year, white rice exports declined significantly, reversing the gains Thailand had made during India’s 2023 export restrictions.
“Export data for the first half of 2024-25 indicates a decline in white rice exports relative to 2023-24, while parboiled and fragrant rice varieties enjoyed stronger demand and price resilience in premium export markets,” the FAS said.
Meanwhile, parboiled and fragrant rice varieties continued to see robust demand and price stability in premium export markets, including the Middle East, Asia, and Africa, highlighting Thailand’s ongoing strength in higher-value segments.
These varieties have benefited from resilient pricing, partly shielding exporters from the downturn that hit standard-grade white rice shipments.
Despite the sharp contraction, Thailand is still poised to finish the current season as the world’s third-largest rice exporter, trailing India and Vietnam.
The FAS expects a similar export level, 7.5 million tonnes, in the upcoming 2025-26 marketing year, signalling stability but also hinting at the industry’s struggle to regain the nearly 10-million-tonne highs achieved before global competition tightened.
On the production side, Thai rice output in 2025-26 is projected at 20.48 million tonnes, only slightly below the previous year and still ranking as Thailand’s fourth-largest harvest on record.
Ample output, coupled with robust carryover, means ending stocks are expected to remain between 3 and 4 million tonnes through both 2024-25 and 2025-26.
According to FAS analysts, these comfortable stock levels will help moderate domestic price volatility even as competitors step up their export activity.
Thailand’s rice sector has undergone notable shifts over recent years. The country benefited from elevated global prices in 2022-23 when India restricted exports, but the resumption of India’s shipments in 2024 quickly reshaped market dynamics.
At the same time, Vietnam’s upgraded milling technology and expanded high-quality rice varieties have intensified competition for traditional buyers of standard white rice.
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Source : Milling MEA
