The global sunflower oil market ends the year with a supply deficit.
Global sunflower oil supply is tightening, with a projected 2.4 million-ton deficit by end-2025 due to sharply lower exports from Ukraine and Russia. Higher Argentine shipments only partly offset losses. Consumption is falling in the EU, China and India, keeping prices elevated versus other oils.
The global sunflower oil market is ending the year with a supply deficit, caused by a decline in exports from Ukraine and Russia and only partially offset by increased supplies from Argentina, Oil World (Germany) reports.
A significant reduction in supply is expected by the end of 2025, which could decrease by approximately 2.4 million tons compared to last year.
The total supply level is expected to be around 25.1 million tonnes, which is below the 2024/25 MY level (25.3 million tonnes) and significantly below the 2023/24 MY level (28.2 million tonnes).
Global exports will decline by 2.7 million tonnes. The main contributors to this decline will be Ukraine (1.6 million tonnes) and Russia (1.4 million tonnes). Meanwhile, shipments from Argentina could increase by approximately 30%, to 1.6 million tonnes, but this will only account for about 12% of the global total.
Sunflower oil consumption is also declining in key regions. In the EU, a decline of almost 1 million tons is expected. In China and India, the decline will be approximately 0.5 million tons.
Analysts also note that in recent weeks, prices have remained at elevated levels compared to other major vegetable oils, indicating a persistent supply shortage.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
