The smallest amount of area in the US will be sown with winter wheat since 1919
USDA’s 2026/27 outlook shows shifting crop patterns, with wheat and corn acreage declining while soybean and cotton areas expand. Higher fertilizer costs and geopolitical tensions are influencing farmer decisions. Despite larger grain inventories, futures prices rose modestly, reflecting supply adjustments and ongoing market uncertainty.
Yesterday, the USDA released its first forecast for US planted areas for the MY 2026/27 Prospective Plantings NASS, which shows that wheat and corn acreage will decline and soybeans will increase, although not as much as predicted at the February Outlook Forum.
Thus, compared to the previous year, the sown area will decrease:
- all types of wheat – by 3% from 45.3 to 43.775 million acres (analysts’ estimate 44.79 million acres, AgForum’s forecast in February – 45 million acres), in particular winter wheat – by 0.73 to 32.41 million acres (minimum since 1919), spring wheat – by 0.485 to 9.42 million acres, durum wheat – to 1.95 million acres;
- corn – by 3.46 to 95.34 million acres (analysts’ estimate is 94.34 million acres, AgForum forecast is 94 million acres).
At the same time, the area sown with the following crops will increase:
- soybeans – by 3.5 to 84.7 million acres (analysts’ estimate – 85.55 million acres, AgForum forecast – 85 million acres),
- cotton – up 4% to 9.64 million acres.
It is worth noting that the war in Iran and rising prices for nitrogen fertilizers may force farmers to reconsider their crop structure.
May futures in Chicago rose yesterday on data on increased acreage:
- by 1.5% to $226.4/t – for soft winter SRW wheat,
- by 1% to $430.3/t – for soybeans,
- by 0.4% to $180.2/t – for corn.
Also yesterday, the USDA released a report on quarterly grain inventories in the United States as of March 1, 2026.
Compared to last year, inventories increased:
- wheat – by 4.8% to 35.38 million tons (analysts’ estimate – 35.65 million tons),
- corn – by 10.7% to 229 (231) million tons,
- soybeans – by 10.2% to 57.3 (56.26) million tons.
Information about the increase in inventories somewhat limited the growth of quotes.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
