There is a possibility of a decrease in wheat production due to increasing heat in March
The impact of climate change on agriculture in India is becoming increasingly evident, with rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and extreme weather events like cyclones disrupting crop cycles. Wheat production, in particular, is vulnerable to terminal heat stress during the grain filling and ripening stages, which reduces yield and quality. Experts warn that by 2050, wheat yields could drop by 19.3%, and rice yields by 20%. This poses a serious threat to food security and the livelihoods of millions of farmers. Adaptation techniques and new crop varieties are crucial to mitigating these effects.
The effects of climate change are now being reflected clearly, due to which its adverse effects on human life as well as animal husbandry and agriculture are clearly visible.
Due to this, the mood of the weather is constantly changing. While the duration of winter is decreasing, on the other hand, the life of the people is getting disrupted due to the uncontrollably increasing temperature in the summer season, and the rainfall is also continuously decreasing.
India Agriculture in the country is highly vulnerable to climate change. According to one estimate, rain-fed rice yields could fall by 20% by 2050 and 47% by 2080 if adaptation measures are not taken. Similarly, wheat yields are expected to decline by 19.3% by 2050 and 40% by 2080. Recent studies suggest that climate and pollution emission trends in 2010 reduced wheat yields by an average of 36%, with some densely populated states reporting losses as high as 50%. These losses not only threaten food
security but also affect the livelihoods of millions of farmers.
Here we will talk about the adverse effects of changing climate on crops. As a result of climate change, the number of cyclonic storms has increased a lot. The falling number of rainy days and abnormal drought in the rainy season indicate that this season is proving to be completely deceptive for rain-fed farming. In the Kharif season of the year 2024, due to more than normal rainfall in the months of September and October, the harvesting of paddy crop was delayed, as well as the preparation of the field for sowing of Rabi crops was also delayed.
Due to this, most of the farmers of North and East Bihar were late in sowing wheat by about 15-20 days or more. And now when the temperature suddenly started rising in the month of February itself, the temperature reached close to 30 degrees Celsius in about 6 districts of Bihar, it seemed as if the Rabi crops were doomed. But once again the cyclonic winds stopped and the weather remained favorable till the first week of March. But now again there is an atmosphere of fear among the farmers due to the claims of meteorologists.
According to meteorologists, central and northern India Temperatures may rise up to 6 degrees Celsius above normal in major wheat producing areas of the country. This year March is going to be unusually hot. Both maximum and minimum temperatures will remain above normal for most of the month. The premature rise in temperature may pose a threat to the country’s major crop wheat, which is already under pressure due to low production for three consecutive years. March will not be favorable for wheat, gram and mustard. Crops may face heat stress, which is called the terminal heat effect
Impact of terminal heat on wheat and other rabi crops: Terminal heat stress refers to a condition when the temperature suddenly rises during the grain filling and ripening stages of the crop. It is becoming a major climate challenge for wheat and other rabi (winter sown) crops in India, especially with the increase in the incidence of premature heat and heatwaves.
- Impact on wheat production and productivity: Wheat is highly sensitive to changes in temperature, and excessive heat during the final stage of its growth in March-April shortens the grain filling period, high temperatures cause early grain ripening, reducing the time for starch accumulation, and producing small, shriveled grains.
Decrease in wheat production – Research has shown that if the temperature increases by 1°C above 30°C, wheat yield can decrease by 3-5%.
Negative impact on quality – High temperatures reduce protein content and glute quality, affecting dough making and bread quality.
Water demand increases – extreme heat increases evaporation, making irrigation less effective and causing crops to require more water. - Impact on other Rabi crops: Chickpea (Gram): Pod formation process is affected due to terminal heat, which leads to smaller and lighter seeds. Temperatures above 35°C may lead to flower drop and seed sterility.
Mustard: High temperature reduces flowering and seed formation period, thereby reducing oil content and seed size.
Lentil and barley: Extreme heat reduces biomass accumulation, negatively impacting both yield and nutritional quality.
Terminal heat stress due to rising global temperatures is becoming a serious challenge for Indian agriculture. Wheat and other rabi crops can be protected from losses caused by climate change through adaptation techniques, development of new varieties, and policy interventions.
India’s agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change. According to one estimate, if adaptation measures are not taken, rain-fed rice yields could fall by 20% by 2050 and by 47% by 2080. Similarly, wheat yields are likely to decline by 19.3% by 2050 and by 40% by 2080.
Recent studies show that climate and pollution emission trends in 2010 reduced wheat yields by an average of 36%, with some densely populated states reporting losses as high as 50%. These losses not only threaten food security but also affect the livelihoods of millions of farmers.
India is the world’s second-largest producer of wheat, but frequent extreme heat has led to a drop in yields in the past few years. This led India to ban wheat exports in 2022 to protect domestic supplies, which also affected the global wheat market. If the crop is also poor in 2025, India will have to rely more on expensive imports, especially at a time when global food prices remain volatile.
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Source : Lokmat
