UK wheat imports remain at historically high levels
UK wheat imports in November 2024 rose 71% year-on-year to 295.1Kt, driven by lower domestic production and quality issues. Total imports from July to November reached 1.45Mt, the highest since 1995/1996. Wheat exports, however, dropped by 62%, totaling 51.6Kt. Barley and oat exports also saw declines, attributed to poor planting conditions in autumn 2023.
The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is confirming that wheat imports into the UK remain at exceptionally high levels.
This trend reflects lower production and quality issues in 2024, as well as a historically higher level of British pound sterling (£) against the euro (€).
A total of 295.1Kt of wheat was imported in November 2024, up 71% on the year and more than double the five-year average pace for November of 127.3Kt.
This takes season to date (July to November) imports to 1.45Mt, the largest volume imported up to November since at least electronic records began in 1995/1996.
For context, in 2012/2013 and 2013/2014, July to November wheat imports totalled 1.03Mt and 1.18Mt respectively.
UK wheat imports
It is expected that a large proportion of UK wheat imports to date are of milling quality, with 529.5Kt coming in from Germany from July to November and 235Kt from Canada over the same period alone.
Currently, full season wheat imports are forecast at 2.75Mt in the UK cereal supply and demand estimates, 13% higher compared to 2023/2024.
While the import pace has been rapid so far this season, it is expected that it will slow during the latter part of the season.
Meanwhile, November 2024 saw maize imports reached 302.7Kt, the highest this season and 17% up on the year.
Total imports into the UK from July to November are now 1.19Mt, the highest since 2020/2021 and 23% above the five-year average.
The pace of maize imports has been encouraged by its relative price and availability earlier in the season, compared with domestic grains.
Exports
As might well have been expected, exports of UK grains are lagging behind the pace of last year and the five-year average.
Given the smaller wheat crop in 2024 and relative strength of sterling from July to November, wheat exports totalled 51.6Kt, down 62% from last year and 84% below the previous five-year average.
Season-to-date barley exports have totalled 189.3Kt, below last year’s 330.9Kt and the five-year average of 1.1Mt.
For oats, 5.5Kt was exported from July to November, significantly lower than last season’s 57.8Kt and the five-year average of 45.2Kt.
The driver for the current cereal import/export trends can be traced back to the very poor planting conditions that impacted across the UK throughout the autumn of 2023.
In contrast, winter cereal crops planted out last autumn are looking well, for the most part, at the present time.
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Source : Agriland
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