UK wheat stocks ease harvest concerns
The UK’s wheat supply for 2024-25 is expected to remain tight due to a forecasted harvest of just 10.9 million tonnes, one of the smallest in recent years. Although significant carryover stocks of 3.26 million tonnes provide a buffer, imports are forecast to increase by over 150,000 tonnes to 3.3 million tonnes. Barley and oats will help mitigate some of the shortfall in feed grains, but high demand for corn imports is projected to continue. Feed grain consumption is expected to decline slightly, but demand from animal sectors like poultry will support feed grain imports
LONDON, ENGLAND — Significant wheat beginning stocks of 3.26 million tonnes for 2024-25 have partly offset concern surrounding the second smallest harvest in the United Kingdom since 1999-2000, but even the current momentum in imports means the wheat balance appears tight, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. While larger barley and oats crops will meet some of the shortfall in feed grain supply, continued high demand for imports of corn for feed is forecast to continue, the FAS said in its Dec. 11 Global Agricultural Information Network report.
Though UK market observers disagree on the final size of the wheat harvest, it is estimated to be down about 3 million tonnes year on year to 10.9 million tonnes and one of the smallest crops in recent times, the FAS said. “For wheat, of most interest in 2024-25 is the very tight supply situation and the timely and significant increase in carryover stocks from 2023-24, up nearly 1 million tonnes year on year,” the FAS said. “This extra buffer is forecast to almost all but be depleted in 2024-25, despite imports being forecast to increase over 150,000 tonnes on the already significant 3.15 million tonnes in 2023-24.” The 2024-25 barley harvest is forecast to have risen nearly 250,000 tonnes year on year to 7.2 million tonnes, albeit with a reduced yield on a larger harvested area.
Oats are considered the UK success story for 2024-25 with production forecast at 1 million tonnes, mostly due to an increased harvested area rather than any yield increase over 2023-24. Total feed grain consumption is forecast to decline 355,000 tonnes to 13.5 million in 2024-25, mainly due to reduced grain fed on farms. Demand from compounders, which rose in 2023-24, is forecast to continue to rise in 2024-25, with this demand being met by a combination of sustained imports of mostly corn and domestic grains. “Improved prices for milk, beef and lamb are supporting demand from those sectors, more than offsetting continued lower demand from the hog sector, which continues to face cost of production challenges,” the FAS said. “Demand from the integrated poultry unit sector is also firm.” Food, seed and industrial (FSI) use is also forecast to decline more than 200,000 tonnes in 2024-25, mostly on less demand from the bioethanol sector.
The UK has two production facilities, one that solely uses wheat and the other a combination of wheat and corn, and neither is expected to run at full capacity due to reduced margins and grain availability. Demand from the brewing, malting and distilling sector is also forecast to fall. For corn, while imports are forecast to decrease marginally to 2.6 million tonnes in 2024-25, they are expected to remain elevated. Incorporation rates in the bioethanol sector are forecast to rise, partially offsetting some reduced wheat usage. Animal feed use, which rose 170,000 tonnes in 2023-24, is currently forecast to climb 100,000 tonnes to 1.6 million.
Associations/Agencies USDA Commodities barley corn oats wheat USDA report Related Articles UK wheat stocks forecast to decline UK wheat ending stocks rise as exports fall U.S. winter wheat harvest expands amid protein concerns UK faces worst wheat harvest since 1980s China boosting grain, oilseed stocks amid supply chain concerns .
To read more about Wheat News continue reading Agriinsite.com
Source : World Grain
Recommended for you
Leave a Reply
Leave a Reply
