Ukraine : Analysts predict sugar price increase
Ukraine’s 2025/26 sugar season begins with 27 factories, aiming to produce 1.5 million tons—down 300 thousand tons from last year due to a 22% drop in beet acreage. Domestic consumption is 900 thousand tons, allowing 500–600 thousand tons for export. Key markets include the Middle East, Africa, and Sri Lanka.
With the beginning of autumn, a new sugar season starts in Ukraine. 27 factories are set to start their work, aiming to produce 1.5 million tons of sugar, as reported by agronews.ua.
Over the past five years, the area under sugar beet cultivation in Ukraine has remained stable at 220 thousand hectares. This year, a significant decrease is observed – down to 198 thousand hectares, which is 22% less compared to the previous year.
The traditional regions of Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, and Poltava remain the leaders in sugar beet cultivation.
27 factories will start operating from September 1, two fewer than last year.
Analysts predict the production of about 1.5 million tons of sugar in Ukraine. This is 300 thousand tons less than the previous season, but this volume covers domestic sugar consumption, estimated at 900 thousand tons from 2022.
With such domestic consumption, the industry is capable of forming a significant export potential for 2025/2026 MY – 500-600 thousand tons. This volume needs to be exported to third countries’ markets.
According to the estimates of the “Ukrtsukor” association, sugar exports in the 2024/2025 MY are projected to reach 580 thousand tons. This is approximately 32% of the sugar produced in the country, similar to the 2022/2023 MY season. Ukraine is likely to lose its 10th place in the list of leading exporters, but will still remain in the top 15 global exporters.
Alternative directions for Ukrainian sugar have become the countries of the Middle East, Africa, and even more exotic ones like Sri Lanka.
Next marketing year, there will be a surplus of up to 5 million tons in the sugar market. At the same time, global reserves are at a 9-year minimum. However, according to World Market Prices data, sugar prices have remained quite high even in productive years, sometimes even rising. This indicates that, in addition to production volumes, the availability of sugar at a specific point in the world at a specific time is also important. Ukrainian sugar producers can benefit from this, having favorable geography and a different season start time.
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Source : Agro News UA
