Ukraine is unlikely to export more than 5 mln tons of corn by the end of the year
Ukraine may export only about 5 million tons of corn by end-2025, far below last season’s 7.6 million. Harvest totals 20.8 million tons, but exports lag. Spot prices hover near $210 amid cargo shortages. Europe remains the main buyer, while Italian demand via the western border supports attractive forward deals around €185–188.
At the current pace, Ukraine is unlikely to export more than 5 million tons of corn by the end of 2025, compared to 7.6 million tons last season, according to Spike Brokers.
Ukraine harvested 20.8 million tons of corn, up 2.9 million tons from last week. Since the beginning of September, corn exports have totaled 2.2 million tons compared to 4.1 million tons last year.
The largest destination for corn exports in November is Europe — 552.3 thousand tons (48%), with Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands as key markets.
According to brokers, spot prices to seaports remain overstated, compensating for the shortage of cargo in the chains.
The spot price index for corn with delivery within 30 days has risen again by $1 — to $210. December prices are gradually gaining some of the November premium and are leveling out. Trading for January-February remains less active.
“Towards the western border, Italian buyers are actively requesting corn for the January-March period at €186-188, loaded into a Eurocar at Chop,” the report says.
Spike Brokers added that regular deals are being recorded weekly for the sale of 2026 corn to Italy via the western border. Given the significant balances at the end of this year, recording a sale at the border for €185 (or $218 equivalent; forward rate EUR/USD 1.7), loaded into a Eurocar, looks very attractive to farmers.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
