Ukraine may disrupt global wheat market due to reduced EU imports
The EU’s reinstatement of wheat import quotas and rising local output will cut imports to just over 6 M t in 2025-26, down from 10.7 M t. Ukraine, once supplying half of EU demand, must redirect exports to Africa and Asia, pressuring prices amid weak global trade and Russian price competition.
The EU’s decision to cut imports is forcing Ukraine to seek new buyers, according to a recent report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Changes in EU trade policy and increased domestic production in Europe are creating new challenges for Ukraine, a key wheat supplier to the region.
In 2022-23, the EU imported over 12 million tonnes of wheat, more than double its typical purchase volume. Over the next two years, imports remained high, with 12.7 million tonnes in 2023-24 and 10.7 million tonnes in the recently concluded crop year. Ukraine accounted for roughly half of these volumes, made possible by the temporary removal of tariff quotas in 2022 due to the war.
However, in June 2025, these preferential measures, known as Autonomous Trade Measures, expired, and the previous quotas were reinstated. At the same time, EU wheat production is projected to rise by 13% compared to last year, driven by increased acreage and yields. This significantly reduces the need for imports, particularly from Ukraine.
According to USDA forecasts, EU wheat imports will drop to just over 6 million tonnes in 2025-26. This forces Ukraine to redirect its export flows to traditional markets such as North Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. Ukraine is expected to export 15.5 million tonnes of wheat in 2025-26, roughly matching last year’s volume.
Agricultural economist Dennis Voznesenski from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia notes that Ukraine’s export shift will put pressure on prices in North Africa and Asia. In his Agri Commodity Weekly Alert, he also suggests that progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine could further depress global wheat prices.
Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, expresses a pessimistic outlook for the wheat market due to weak demand. He notes that global wheat trade is stagnating, with hard red winter wheat futures declining since March, reaching new contract lows. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine continue to ramp up production, complicating the situation.
Russia, the world’s leading wheat exporter, is lowering prices to stimulate demand. As of August 27, Russian wheat was priced at US$233 per tonne. However, major buyers like China are reducing imports, with China expected to import only 6 million tonnes in 2025-26, down from 13.8 million tonnes a few years ago. This creates additional challenges for Ukraine in finding new markets for its wheat.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
