Ukraine to reduce sunflower oil production by 10% in MY 2025/26
Ukraine’s sunflower oil output is set to fall 10% to 4.6 million tonnes in 2025/26 due to lower yields and reduced acreage. However, strong global prices are expected to offset losses, supporting revenues as the sector shifts toward more domestic processing and higher value-added exports.
In the MY 2025/2026, sunflower oil production in Ukraine is expected to decline to 4.6 million tonnes, down 10% compared to the previous season. This was reported by the industry association “Ukroliyaprom”.
According to the latest forecasts, the sector anticipates a noticeable drop in key indicators compared to last year:
- Sunflower oil production: около 4.6 million tonnes (down 10%)
- Sunflower oil exports: 4.4 million tonnes (down 6.4%)
- Yields: decreased by 16.8%, the lowest level in the past 10 years
- Harvested area: reduced by 7.8%
Prices support revenues
At the same time, according to the National Scientific Centre “Institute of Agrarian Economics,” sunflower seeds production profitability reached 54.7% in 2025, one of the highest among crops.
Despite the physical decline in production volumes, farmers do not expect revenue losses. On the contrary, there is a trend toward higher foreign currency earnings, driven by a sharp increase in global sunflower oil prices, which fully offsets the quantitative shortfall.
Analysts also highlight a gradual transformation of the sector. In particular, the current marketing year has seen increased domestic processing of rapeseed and soybeans, alongside a reduction in exports of these raw materials.
This approach helps partially compensate for the sunflower deficit and ensures better utilization of processing capacities. It also signals a shift from raw material exports toward higher value-added products, according to the association.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
