Ukraine: Wheat yields less than other crops despite rising prices
Wheat harvesting in Ukraine is slower this year, with only 1.2 million tons gathered so far and yields averaging 2.8–2.9 t/ha due to weather-hit southern regions. Central areas show better yields. Prices are rising, with food wheat up over \$1/t. Farmers are delaying sales, expecting further gains as harvesting progresses and western yields improve.
Wheat harvesting in Ukraine is progressing more slowly than in previous years. As of mid-July, about 1.2 million tons have been threshed, and the average yield is 2.8–2.9 t/ha. Current indicators are formed mainly due to the southern regions that have suffered from weather conditions. This was reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, created within the VAR.
“In the central regions, a stable yield of 4–6 t/ha is recorded. The greatest losses are observed in the south, in particular in the Dnipropetrovsk region, where yields are lower than average,” analysts note.
As the central and western regions join the harvest, the average yield is expected to increase to 3.3–3.5 t/ha. At the same time, farmers note the risks associated with precipitation and the possible spread of fungal diseases in the western regions. This can lead to a decrease in protein content and deterioration of grain quality indicators.
At the same time, the wheat market is already showing signs of recovery.
“Last week, prices for food wheat increased by more than $1/t, for feed wheat by $4–5/t. In the next two weeks, the cost of the third grade of wheat may reach $218–220/t on a CPT-port basis. Wheat retains the potential for further growth. An increase in prices is expected in July–August, and seasonal highs traditionally fall in the first months of the year,” the PUSK believes.
Experts add that despite the increase in prices, wheat is currently inferior in profitability to rapeseed and barley. Because of this, some farmers are refraining from active sales, postponing the sale of grain to a later period in the hope of further strengthening the price situation. Further market activity will largely depend on the pace of harvest and weather conditions, especially in the western regions of the country.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
