Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest may fall by 10%, minister says
Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest may drop 10% to 51 million tonnes due to poor weather and war-related challenges, says Agriculture Minister Vitaliy Koval. Wheat output could reach 20–22 million tonnes, while oilseed harvest may decline 5%. Despite setbacks, Ukraine— a key global grain and sunflower oil supplier— aims to maintain exports, though forecasts remain uncertain amid ongoing conflict and weather risks.
KYIV – Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest may decrease by 10 per cent to around 51 million tonnes compared with 56.7 million tonnes in 2024, according to the most pessimistic estimates, Ukrainian agriculture minister Vitaliy Koval said on June 3.
Ukraine is a global producer of grains and oilseeds, but the harvest is highly dependent on favourable weather conditions during both the autumn sowing and spring months.
Military risks associated with the ongoing Russian invasion are also reducing output as farmers are afraid or unable to plant and harvest crops. Significant areas have also been seized or mined.
“A difficult season awaits us. An abnormally warm winter, first there was no humidity, then prolonged rains delayed the sowing campaign in some regions for two weeks. Therefore, we expect a decrease in the harvest,” Mr Koval told Reuters.
“The most negative forecast is minus 10 per cent. According to expectations, the harvest of grain is minus 10 per cent, oilseeds minus 5 per cent. It’s definitely not a failure, but God willing, we will harvest everything,” he said.
Giving the first detailed forecast, for 2025 Mr Koval said Ukraine could harvest around 26 million tonnes of corn, 4.5 million tonnes of barley, 1.5 million tonnes of minor grains, 11.5 million tonnes of sunflower seeds, and 11 million tonnes of sugar beet.
He said the wheat harvest may be between 20 million and 22 million tonnes and the final figure would depend on weather and war-related factors.
Mr Koval said the 2025 overall oilseed crop could decrease to around 20.16 million tonnes from 21.18 million tonnes in 2024, partially due to a decrease in the rapeseed crop by 600,000 tonnes.
Ukraine is the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter.
The minister declined to provide Ukraine’s 2025/26 grain export forecast, based on an as yet unclear final harvest figure, but analysts say exports will total 40.9 million tonnes, including 15 million to 15.5 million tonnes of wheat.
Analyst Asap Agri said last week Ukraine’s wheat exports were expected to fall in the 2025/26 July-June season due to possible changes in the EU’s import policy, uncertain harvest prospects and a better crop outlook in EU importing countries. REUTERS
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Source : Straits Times
