Ukraine’s wheat export prices fall amid rising supply, but delayed harvest keeps market on edge
Heavy rains in Ukraine and the U.S. are delaying wheat harvests and affecting quality, halting price declines despite weak global demand. Ukrainian wheat prices dropped after speculative rises but stabilized as export volumes fell. U.S. wheat exports slowed, while EU production forecasts were reduced. Global wheat prices may remain steady until mid-August.
Last week, traders were able to purchase wheat shipments needed for July exports, so they slightly lowered their purchase prices, which were sometimes higher than their selling prices. But heavy rainfall in the west is delaying the harvest and reducing the quality of wheat, which has stopped the price decline. World wheat quotes fell slightly for the week due to low demand even for cheap American wheat.
Purchase prices for Ukrainian food wheat, after a speculative jump to the level of 10900-11000 UAH/t or 228-233 $/t, decreased by 300-400 UAH/t to 10600-10700 UAH/t or 223-226 $/t, and for feed wheat – by 200-300 UAH/t to 10300-10400 UAH/t or 218-220 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. Prices have returned to the levels that traders can pay according to the volumes sold at international tenders.
Wheat exports from Ukraine for 28 days of July amounted to only 408 thousand tons, which is 3.5 times lower than the corresponding figure last year (1.438 million tons) due to delayed harvesting.
As of July 24, 2025, 7.09 million tons of wheat were threshed in Ukraine from 2.18 million hectares (44% of the planned area) with a yield of 3.25 tons/hectare, while as of July 25, 2024, 14.72 million tons of wheat were harvested from 3.5 million hectares with a yield of 4.2 tons/hectare. The precipitation forecast for this week may significantly reduce the quality of wheat in the west. In addition, information is already emerging about the appearance of sooty mold and alternaria on some wheat batches.
Accelerating wheat harvests in the US and Europe and low demand continue to put pressure on stock quotes, and September futures had the following dynamics during the week:
- decreased by 0.6% to $197.9/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago,
- remained at $193.3/t for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
- decreased by 0.9% to $214/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
- decreased by 1.4% to €199.25/t or $230.1/t for wheat on the Euronext Paris exchange.
As of July 27, winter wheat in the US has been threshed on 80% of the area (81% last year and 81% on average for 5 years), but the number of spring wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased again by 2% to 49% per week (74% last year), despite heavy precipitation in the growing regions.
During July 17-24, wheat exports from the USA decreased by 2.5 times compared to the previous week to 288.8 thousand tons, and in total since the beginning of the 2025/26 season (June 1) amounted to 3.31 million tons, which is only 6% ahead of last year’s pace.
The European Commission has lowered its forecast for common wheat production in the European Union in the 2025/2026 marketing year from 128.2 million tonnes to 127.3 million tonnes.
International buyers will continue to wait for the wheat harvest to finish and will purchase cautiously, so world prices will be stable until mid-August.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
