Ukrainian corn is losing price competitiveness
As of May 5, Ukraine exported 255,000 tons of corn, but analysts warn of a likely price drop due to high export premiums versus cheaper U.S. corn. American corn sells $20–25/ton lower in key markets like Spain, Egypt, and Turkey, pressuring Ukraine’s competitiveness despite its non-GMO advantage. Domestic prices remain stable, but a market correction is expected in June.
As of May 5, Ukrainian corn exports amounted to 255 thousand tons, and, according to forecasts, May will still remain an active month for trade. However, you can already prepare for a possible price drop. This was reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, created within the VAR.
At the moment, Ukrainian corn is significantly losing out to the American price. Thus, last week, Spanish importers bought corn from the United States at $245–247 per ton, while Ukrainian products were offered to the Spanish market at $268–273. The situation is similar in other key areas – in Egypt and Turkey, where American corn is cheaper by $20–25 per ton, which forces importers to reconsider priorities in favor of the United States.
“Despite the fact that Ukrainian corn is non-GMO, such a premium already looks excessive. This creates a risk of losing traditional sales markets: Turkey is already signaling a transition to American origin,” analysts comment.
At the same time, the domestic market demonstrates relative stability.
“Last week, conditional prices reached $240–243 per ton. In hryvnia equivalent, the cost of corn in ports is at the level of 11,400–11,500 UAH/t. But already in June, a significant drop in prices is possible without further recovery, because the market is objectively “overheated,” – believe the PUSK.
Despite all the challenges, corn remains one of the most profitable crops, almost 2 million hectares of this grain have already been sown in Ukraine. YF
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Source : Ukragro Consult
