Ukrainian corn this season is unlikely to be wasted on the Chinese market
Grain transshipment capacity is fully booked until year-end, prompting producers to diversify logistics via rail and sea. Almeida Group’s Dmitry Sukh said Italy is locking in major contracts after past quality issues with Hungarian and Romanian grain. China, expecting a strong corn harvest, is reducing imports despite USDA’s higher projections.
The queue for grain transshipment this season is already full until the new year. Producers are currently spreading the risk: some are choosing rail transport, while others find it more profitable to ship their harvest by sea.
Almeida Group trader Dmitry Sukh said this during a Trend&Hedge Club meeting.
“I would forget about northwestern Europe anytime soon; Italy has secured significant contracts and continues to do so. Right now, if you want to sell grain, you won’t get prices that are comparable to those in Russia. In my opinion, the reason is that the Italians learned their lesson from last year, when they signed contracts with Hungary and Romania, and toxins were found in the grain, leading to disrupted deliveries. Then the price rose from $170/t to $200/t and more,” the trader noted.
The Chinese market isn’t expected to see any significant changes or significant volumes in the next six months. While the USDA estimates China’s imports at 10 million tons, the Chinese themselves estimate 7 million tons, and ARGUS media analysts estimate 4 million tons. This year, they have a good corn harvest, so the Chinese are gradually abandoning their partners.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
