United States’s Milled Rice Marketto Reach 8.7M Tons and $6.2B by2035, Driven by Increasing Demand
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The milled rice market in the United States is anticipated to expand with a CAGR of +0.7% from 2024 to 2035. This growth is being driven by increasing demand, with market performance expected to retain its current trend pattern. By the end of 2035, the market volume is forecasted to reach 8.7M tons, while the market value is projected to hit $6.2B in nominal prices.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for milled rice in the United States, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.7% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 8.7M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +0.7% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $6.2B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
United States’s Consumption of Milled Rice In 2024, milled rice consumption in the United States dropped dramatically to 8.1M tons, reducing by -16.7% compared with the year before. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, consumption reached the peak volume at 9.7M tons in 2023, and then fell rapidly in the following year.
The revenue of the milled rice market in the United States dropped to $5.7B in 2024, which is down by -8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Milled rice consumption peaked at $6.9B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.
Production
United States’s Production of Milled Rice In 2024, milled rice production in the United States reduced to 8.6M tons, waning by -13.3% compared with 2023. Over the period under review, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 when the production volume increased by 36% against the previous year. Milled rice production peaked at 10M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.
In value terms, milled rice production declined slightly to $6.1B in 2024. Overall, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 45%. Milled rice production peaked at $7.5B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.
Imports
United States’s Imports of Milled Rice In 2024, the amount of milled rice imported into the United States rose markedly to 1.4M tons, surging by 7.4% compared with 2023 figures. Overall, imports recorded strong growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 with an increase of 35%. Imports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.
In value terms, milled rice imports reached $1.5B in 2024. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a buoyant increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports increased by +68.1% against 2021 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 33% against the previous year. Imports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.
Imports By Country
In 2024, Thailand (816K tons) constituted the largest milled rice supplier to the United States, with a 57% share of total imports. Moreover, milled rice imports from Thailand exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, India (292K tons), threefold. China (99K tons) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 6.9% share. From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume from Thailand totaled +7.3%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: India (+7.6% per year) and China (+37.7% per year).
In value terms, Thailand ($765M) constituted the largest supplier of milled rice to the United States, comprising 52% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($372M), with a 25% share of total imports. It was followed by China, with a 4.5% share. From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Thailand totaled +4.3%. The remaining supplying countries recorded.
Imports By Type
In 2024, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice (1.3M tons) was the main type of milled rice supplied to the United States, accounting for a 92% share of total imports. Moreover, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, broken rice (85K tons), more than tenfold.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice imports stood at +8.1%. With regard to the other supplied products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: broken rice (+5.9% per year) and husked (brown) rice (-4.0% per year).
In value terms, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice ($1.4B) constituted the largest type of milled rice supplied to the United States, comprising 94% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by broken rice ($51M), with a 3.5% share of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of semimilled or wholly milled (bleached) rice imports totaled +6.3%. With regard to the other supplied products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: broken rice (+7.0% per year) and husked (brown) rice (-4.3% per year).
Import Prices By Type
In 2024, the average milled rice import price amounted to $1,025 per ton, growing by 4.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, saw a slight shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $1,208 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, import prices remained at a lower figure.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplied products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was husked (brown) rice ($1,323 per ton), while the price for broken rice ($598 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by broken rice (+1.0%), while the prices for the other products experienced a decline.
Import Prices By Country
The average milled rice import price stood at $1,025 per ton in 2024, rising by 4.8% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, recorded a slight contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 14%. The import price peaked at $1,208 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Pakistan ($1,592 per ton), while the price for Mexico ($522 per ton) was amongst the lowest. From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Vietnam (+3.5%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports
United States’s Exports of Milled Rice In 2024, overseas shipments of milled rice increased by 26% to 1.9M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after three years of decline. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a slight shrinkage. The exports peaked at 2.3M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, milled rice exports totaled $1.6B in 2024. In general, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.
Exports By Country
Haiti (351K tons), Japan (335K tons) and South Korea (241K tons) were the main destinations of milled rice exports from the United States, with a combined 48% share of total exports. Canada, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Jordan, Taiwan (Chinese), the Dominican Republic and Colombia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 41%.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by the Dominican Republic (with a CAGR of +17.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Japan ($294M), Haiti ($274M) and South Korea ($225M) appeared to be the largest markets for milled rice exported from the United States worldwide, with a combined 49% share of total exports. Canada, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Mexico, Jordan, the Dominican Republic, Taiwan (Chinese) and Colombia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 42%.
Among the main countries of destination, the Dominican Republic, with a CAGR of +18.7%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports By Type
Semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice (1.6M tons) was the largest type of milled rice exported from the United States, with a 83% share of total exports. Moreover, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice exceeded the volume of the second product type, husked (brown) rice (254K tons), sixfold.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice exports stood at -1.5%. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: husked (brown) rice (-0.3% per year) and broken rice (+0.7% per year).
In value terms, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice ($1.4B) remains the largest type of milled rice exported from the United States, comprising 85% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by husked (brown) rice ($218M), with a 13% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice exports was relatively modest. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: husked (brown) rice (+2.3% per year) and broken rice (-0.6% per year).
Export Prices By Type
The average milled rice export price stood at $831 per ton in 2024, dropping by -16.6% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a slight increase from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an
average annual rate of +1.7% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 22% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $997 per ton in 2023, and then reduced dramatically in the following year.
Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was husked (brown) rice ($861 per ton), while the average price for exports of broken rice ($442 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for the following types: brown rice (+2.6%), while the prices for the other products experienced mixed trend patterns.
Export Prices By Country
In 2024, the average milled rice export price amounted to $831 per ton, dropping by -16.6% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a slight increase from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 22% against the previous year.
The export price peaked at $997 per ton in 2023, and then declined markedly in the following year. There were significant differences in the average prices for the major external markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Saudi Arabia ($1,155 per ton), while the average price for
exports to Iraq ($662 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Saudi Arabia (+2.9%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.
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Source : Index Box
