US farmers increase winter wheat plantings
The USDA’s December 2024 Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report shows U.S. winter wheat plantings at 13.82 million hectares, a 2.3% increase from 2023. Hard Red Winter makes up 70.4% of this area. Some states like Kansas and Oklahoma saw declines, while Michigan and Ohio increased their plantings. Winter wheat conditions are varied, with drought concerns in South Dakota and Texas. Canola planting data was limited.
AMONG the many reports released by the United States Department of Agriculture last Friday was the national Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings update. This report tallies the state planting estimates from the autumn of 2024 and gives the market its first insight into potential US production from the winter crop that will be harvested in the spring and summer of 2025.
The estimates in this annual report are based primarily on mail, internet, and phone surveys conducted in the first two weeks of December last year. The December Agricultural Survey is a probability evaluation that includes a sample of approximately 73,300 farm operators randomly selected from a list of producers that ensures all farming operations in the country have a chance of being chosen.
The USDA pegged the total area planted to winter wheat at 13.82 million hectares (Mha), an increase of 2.3 percent compared to 13.51Mha a year prior, and the second highest in the last 10 years behind the fall of 2022, when 14.85Mha was planted for harvest in 2023.
Looking at the class breakdown, the USDA called the Hard Red Winter plantings 9.71Mha, up from 9.63Mha a year ago for 70.4pc of the total winter wheat area. The area planted to Soft Red Winter varieties made up 18.9pc of the total at 2.61Mha, up from 2.45Mha in 2023, and the White Winter crop covered just 1.47Mha or 10.7pc of the winter wheat program, marginally higher year on year.
State area moves mixed
Among the major producing states, the winter wheat area in Kansas is estimated to be 2.6pc lower at 2.99Mha; in Texas, it is expected to be 5.5pc higher at 2.35Mha; in Oklahoma, the survey said it was 2.3pc lower at 1.72Mha; farmers in Montana have increased plantings by 15.4pc to 910,000ha; and the Colorado area was unchanged at 850,000ha. Collectively, these five states account for almost two-thirds of the US winter wheat area, with Kansas the heaviest hitter at 21.7pc of the total.
Other changes of note among the states with a planted area of more than 200,000ha were Kentucky, down 7.1pc; Michigan, up 37.5pc; Missouri, down 6pc; Nebraska, down 3pc; Ohio, up 26.9pc; Oregon, up 1.4pc; South Dakota down 8.1pc; and Washington up 2.8pc.
Of significant interest are the origins of the area expansion, which is largely outside of traditional winter wheat-producing states. Most of the decline came from Kansas and Oklahoma, which are big winter wheat states, but there were some significant area increases in less traditional winter wheat states in the Great Lakes region, the Southeast, and the West Coast.
Crop condition ratings fell in December
Meanwhile, winter wheat condition ratings for Kansas declined significantly during December, despite an improvement to the dry conditions being experienced in parts of the state. As of January 5, the USDA rated 47pc of the Kansas winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition, down from 55pc in late November, but an improvement on the 43pc rating at the same time last year. The fair rated proportion was 37pc of the crop, and the poor to very poor-rated districts made up 16pc of the planted area.
On the same date, the National Agricultural Statistics Service rated the state’s topsoil moisture reserves at 9pc very short, 27pc short, 60pc adequate, and only 4pc in surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies were judged as 12pc very short, 30pc short, 56pc adequate, and 2pc in surplus.
According to the latest US Drought Monitor report released on Thursday of last week, 24.6pc of Kansas was considered to be in moderate drought, down from 28.7pc a week earlier and 45.3pc at seeding time. Another 40.2pc of the state was reported as abnormally dry, up from 36.1pc a week earlier.
This season’s good to excellent wheat ratings also dropped throughout December in Nebraska (27pc), Oklahoma (45pc), and South Dakota (22pc) but improved in Montana (42pc) and Colorado (70pc). As of December 31, around 25pc of the national winter wheat area was experiencing some degree of drought, down from 27pc before Christmas and 32pc a year earlier.
Drought declaration highlights South Dakota, Texas
According to the January 7 US Drought Monitor Report, 30pc of Oklahoma was in the abnormally dry to exceptional drought category, down 15 points from the previous year. Down in Texas, that number was 63.2pc of the state’s area, unchanged week on week, but up from 56.5pc at the same time in 2024. The situation is far worse in South Dakota, where the entire state is drought declared, which will present significant challenges if significant precipitation does not arrive ahead of the critical spring wheat planting window, which traditionally opens in late March.
Ratings declined in Illinois and Ohio as well, where Soft Red Winter, used to make cookies and snack foods, is the main wheat crop. The USDA rated 69pc of the Illinois crop as good to excellent on January 5, down from 80pc in November. In Ohio, the number was 57pc compared to 70pc in November.
Despite the USDA report’s title, data on the canola area was relatively scant. According to last week’s report, the seeding estimate period has yet to commence in the three main producing states of North Dakota, Montana and Washington. The total area planted to canola in the autumn of 2023 was 1.11Mha, with North Dakota accounting for 77.8pc of the total, and a year earlier, the area was 950,000ha, with the North Dakota share at 82.3pc.
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Source : Grain Central
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