USDA again lowered the forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine
The USDA raised its 2025/26 global wheat production forecast to 844.15 million tonnes, with higher ending stocks at 283.12 million tonnes. While exports were slightly lowered, increased output from key producers like Russia and the EU signals ample global supply, potentially keeping wheat prices under pressure.
The USDA increased its forecast for global wheat production in 2025/26 by 2.03 million tons to 844.15 million tons, the ministry said in its April report.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 221.88 million tons (-0.28 million tons). Experts have increased the forecast of the final stocks of wheat in the world to 283.12 million tons (+6 million tons).
The estimate of the wheat harvest in Ukraine remained unchanged — 24 million tons, exports will be at the level of 12.5 million tons (-1 million tons), final stocks — 3.93 million tons (+0.8 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is 54.01 million tons. The export estimate is also unchanged at 24.49 million tons, ending stocks are 25.52 million tons (+0.18 million tons).
Forecast for the main exporters of wheat for MY 2025/26:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Export, mln tons | Stocks, mln tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 27.92(+0.12) | 19.5 (0) | 3.43 (+0.12) |
| Australia | 36 (0) | 26.5 (-0.5) | 4.62 (+0.5) |
| Canada | 39.96 (0) | 29 (0) | 5.89 (0) |
| EU | 145.11 (+1.11) | 30.5 (0) | 16.18 (+0.51) |
| Russia | 90.3 (+0.8) | 44.5 (+1) | 14.99 (-0.2) |
USDA analysts forecast China’s 2025/26 wheat production at 140.07 million tons, import estimates at 6 million tons, and ending stocks at 124.85 million tons.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
