USDA increases harvest estimates for major wheat producers, no change for Ukraine
World wheat production for 2025/26 is forecast at 828.89 million tons, up 12.69 million tons from the previous estimate. Global exports rise to 217.21 million tons, and ending stocks increase to 271.43 million tons. Major exporters show modest production gains, while Ukraine’s figures remain unchanged. China’s output is projected at 140 million tons.
USDA forecasts world wheat production in MY 2025/26 at 828.89 million tons (+12.69 million tons compared to the previous forecast), according to the USDA report for November.
Note: The previous USDA report was in September, not October, due to the US government shutdown.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 217.21 million tons (+2.49 million tons). Experts have increased the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 271.43 million tons (+7.37 million tons).
The estimated wheat harvest forecast in Ukraine is 23 million tons, exports will be at 15 million tons, ending stocks – 1.93 million tons. That is, all indicators remained unchanged.
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is 54.01 million tons (+1.56 million tons). Export estimate unchanged at 24.49 million tonnes, ending stocks at 24.52 million tonnes (+1.56 million tonnes).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2025/26:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Export, mln tons | Stocks, mln tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 22 (+2,5) | 14 (+1) | 4,02 (-0,13) |
| Australia | 36 (+1,5) | 26 (+1) | 5,59 (+0,31) |
| Canada | 37 (+1) | 27 (0) | 5,36 (+1) |
| EU | 142,3 (+2,2) | 33 (+0,5) | 13,01 (+1,22) |
| Russia | 86,5 (+1,5) | 44 (-1) | 12,19 (+1) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in MY 2025/26 at 140 million tons, import estimate — 6 million tons, ending stocks — 124.78 million tons.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
