USDA lowers estimate of Ukraine’s wheat harvest and exports this season
The USDA’s July report forecasts global wheat production in MY 2025/26 at 808.5 million tons, down slightly by 0.04 million tons from the previous season. Exports are estimated at 213.06 million tons (−1.27 million), while ending stocks are projected at 261.52 million tons (−1.24 million). Ukraine’s harvest is revised down to 22 million tons, and U.S. exports are up at 23.13 million tons.
USDA forecasts world wheat production in MY 2025/26 at 808.5 million tons (-0.04 million tons compared to the previous season), according to the USDA report for July.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 213.06 million tons (-1.27 million tons). Experts have lowered the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 261.52 million tons (-1.24 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine has decreased by 1 million tons to 22 million tons, exports will be at 15.5 million tons (-1 million tons), ending stocks unchanged – 1.59 million tons (+0.1 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is 52.49 million tons (+0.21 million tons). Estimated exports are 23.13 million tons (+0.68 million tons), ending stocks are 24.23 million tons (-0.22 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for 2025/26 MY:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Stoks, mln tons |
| Argentina | 20 (0) | 13 (0) | 4,65 (0) |
| Australia | 31 (0) | 25 (0) | 4,35 (+0,03) |
| Canada | 35 (-1) | 27 (0) | 3,49 (-0,9) |
| EU | 137,25 (+0,7) | 32 (-2) | 12,61 (-0,3) |
| Russia | 83,5 (+0,5) | 46 (+1) | 9,39 (0) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in 2025/26 MY at 142 million tons, estimated imports — 6 million tons, ending stocks — 124.6 million tons.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
