USDA: May WASDE predicts corn use for ethanol at 5.5 billion bushels for 2025’26
The USDA projects record U.S. corn production of 15.8 billion bushels for 2025–26, driven by expanded acreage and higher yields. Ethanol-related corn use remains steady at 5.5 billion bushels, while overall corn use rises slightly due to higher domestic demand and exports. Global corn consumption will outpace production for the second straight year, with global ending stocks falling to their lowest since 2013–14.
The USDA currently predicts corn use in ethanol for the 2025-’26 marketing year to be unchanged when compared to the 2024-’25 marketing year, according to forecasts included in the agency’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released May 12.
The 2025-’26 corn outlook is for record supplies and total use, and higher ending stocks. The USDA currently projects the corn crop at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6% when compared to last year on increase to both area and yield. Expected planted areas of 95.3 million acres, if realized, would be the highest in over a decade. The yield projection of 181 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. With smaller beginning stocks partially offsetting the increase in production, the USDA expects total corn supplies to be at 17.3 billion bushels.
Total U.S. corn use for 2025-’26 is expected to increase more than 1% when compared to the previous marketing year on higher domestic use and exports. Food, seed and industrial use is forecast at 6.9 billion bushels, with feed and residual use projected higher to 5.9 billion bushels on larger supplies and lower expected prices.
The USDA currently predicts 2025-’26 corn use for ethanol will reach 5.5 billion bushels, unchanged when compared to the 5.5 billion bushels of corn the USDA estimates when to ethanol production for 2024-’25. Corn use for ethanol as at 5.478 billion bushels in 2023-’24.
Corn exports for 2025-’26 are forecast up from a year ago to 2.47 billion bushels, with lower prices driving a forecast increase in world trade. Exports for competitor countries such as Argentina and Ukraine are higher than a year ago. For Brazil, expectations of continued domestic demand growth limit expansion in exports. The U.S. is projected to be the world’s largest exporter, with fractional decline in global market share.
With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2025-‘26 ending stocks are expected to be up 385 million bushels from last year, and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2019-‘20. Stocks would represent 11.6% of use, up from 9.3% the prior year. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.20 per bushel, down 15 cents.
World corn production for 2025-’26 is forecast to rise to a record 1.265 billion metric tons, with the largest increases for the U.S., Ukraine, and Argentina. Partly offsetting are smaller crops projected for Tanzania and Canada. Larger area expectations drive an increase in corn production for Argentina, while a return to trend yield and higher area boosts production prospects for Ukraine. For Brazil, expansion in corn area drives larger crop prospects.
World corn consumption is expected to rise 2% to a record 1.274 billion metric tons, with consumption exceeding production for the second consecutive year. World corn imports are forecast to rise 1%, driven by increases for several countries, including China, Vietnam, the EU, Venezuela, and Iran. Partly offsetting are declines for Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Turkey.
Global corn ending stocks for 2025-‘26 are down 9.5 million tons to 277.8 million tons which if realized would be the lowest since 2013-‘14. For 2025-‘26, stocks in the major exporting countries of Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. are projected to rise, mostly reflecting an increase for the U.S. partly offset by a decline for Brazil.
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Source : Ethanol Producer Magazine
