USDA raises global rapeseed production forecast
USDA raised 2025/26 global oilseed output to 690.26 Mt on higher rapeseed, peanut and soybean crops, offsetting lower sunflower output. Rapeseed rose sharply on gains in Canada and Australia. Sunflower production and processing fell due to reduced Ukrainian and Russian harvests. Futures weakened amid expanding supply and slow U.S. soybean exports.
In the December world balance of oilseed crops for 2025/26 MY, FAS USDA experts increased the forecast for world oilseed production by 2.25 million tons compared to November estimates to 690.26 million tons (684.5 million tons in 2024/25 MY and 657.4 million tons in 2023/24 MY) due to an increase in rapeseed and peanut yields, which more than compensates for the decrease in sunflower production.
The global rapeseed production forecast has been raised by 3 million tonnes due to increased production in Canada and Australia, peanut production will increase by 1.1 million tonnes due to an increased harvest in Nigeria, and the global soybean production forecast has been raised by 0.79 million tonnes, which will offset a decrease in global sunflower production by 2.49 million tonnes as a result of reduced harvests in Ukraine and Russia.
The forecast for global ending stocks of oilseeds has been raised by 1.34 million tonnes to 143.6 (141.6) million tonnes as a result of lower processing and export volumes.
The forecast for global rapeseed production in 2025/26 MY has been increased by 3 million tons to 95.273 (86) million tons, including for Canada – by 2 million tons to 22 (19.24) million tons, Australia – by 0.5 to 7.2 (6.4) million tons and Russia – by 0.5 to 6 (4.65) million tons.
The EU rapeseed import forecast has been raised by 0.2 million tonnes to 5.7 (7.96) million tonnes amid rising global supply.
January canola futures have fallen 4% since the start of December to 620 CAD/t or $448/t (-4% month-on-month) following the release of the StatCan report, while February rapeseed futures in Paris yesterday fell 1% to 471.75 Є/t or $548.7/t (-1.7% month-on-month) under pressure from increasing supply.
The global soybean balance remained virtually unchanged in December.
The forecast for global soybean production in 2020 5/26 has been increased by 0.79 million tons to 422.54 (427.15) million tons, including for Russia – to 9 million tons (7 million tons last year) and India – by 0.5 to 10.5 (12.6) million tons. However, the forecast for Ukraine has been reduced by 0.2 to 6 (7) million tons and Canada.
The forecast for global ending soybean stocks has been increased by 0.38 million tons to 122.37 (123.24) million tons.
Chicago soybean futures for January delivery fell 0.6% to $399.50 a ton after the report’s release, and are trading 4% lower than a month ago, due to the slow pace of U.S. exports.
The forecast for global sunflower production has been reduced by 2.49 million tons to 51.77 (52.14) million tons, including for the Russian Federation – by 1 to 17.5 (16.9) million tons, for Ukraine – by 1.5 to 10.5 (13) million tons.
USDA experts have reduced their sunflower yield forecast in Ukraine by 9% to 1.88 t/ha compared to November estimates, and the harvesting area by 3% to 5.6 million hectares, which would be 13% and 7% lower than last year’s figures, respectively.
The forecast for global sunflower processing has been reduced by 2.35 million tons to 51.75 million tons, which is 0.7% lower than last season’s figure (52.1 million tons).
The forecast for ending sunflower stocks has been reduced by 0.25 million tons to 2.8 million tons (compared to 2.93 last season).
Sunflower prices in Ukraine remain at the level of 28,000-29,500 UAH/t (with delivery to the plant at 50% oil content), which is 3.5-4% higher than a month ago.
Oilseed markets will remain under supply pressure throughout the month, but in January-February, if the South American soybean harvest reaches the forecast level, prices will begin to decline under supply pressure.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
