USDA raises Ukrainian wheat harvest estimate this year
The USDA projects 2025/26 world wheat output at 816.2 million tons (+9.3 million) and exports at 214.2 million (+1.19 million). Ending stocks rise to 264.06 million. Larger harvests in Australia, Canada, Russia, and the EU offset declines elsewhere. Ukraine’s crop is 23 million, U.S. 52.45 million, while China’s ending stocks reach 124.78 million tons.
USDA forecasts world wheat production in MY 2025/26 at 816.2 million tons (+9.3 million tons compared to the previous forecast), according to the USDA report for September.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 214.2 million tons (+1.19 million tons). Experts have increased the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 264.06 million tons (+3.98 million tons).
The estimated wheat harvest in Ukraine is 23 million tons (+1 million tons), exports will be at 15 million tons (-0.5 million tons), ending stocks are 1.93 million tons (+1 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is 52.45 million tons. Estimated exports are 24.49 million tons (+0.68 million tons), ending stocks are 22.96 million tons (-0.68 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2025/26:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Export, mln tons | End stocks, mln tons |
| Argentina | 19,5 (-0,2) | 13 (0) | 4,15 (-0,2) |
| Australia | 34,5 (+3,5) | 25 (0) | 5,28 (+0,9) |
| Canada | 36 (+1) | 27 (0) | 4,36 (+0,87) |
| EU | 140,1 (+1,85) | 32,5 (0) | 11,72 (-0,82) |
| Russia | 85 (+1,5) | 45 (-1) | 11,9 (-1,8) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in 2025/26 MY at 140 million tons, import estimate — 6 million tons, final reserves — 124.78 million tons.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
