USDA sharply lowers corn harvest forecast in Ukraine
Ukraine’s 2025/26 corn harvest forecast has been cut by 3 Mt to 29 Mt due to lower area, yields and slow, wet harvesting. Exports fall to 23 Mt and stocks to 0.85 Mt. USDA trimmed global output to 1.283 Bt, while U.S. production stays unchanged at 425.5 Mt.
USDA analysts have lowered their forecast for Ukraine’s corn harvest in the MY 2025/26 by 3 million tons to 29 million tons. This is stated in the US Department’s report for December.
“According to published government data, corn production in Ukraine has declined sharply, with both area and yield decreasing, with harvests being slow due to the wet climate in key growing regions,” the report says.
The export estimate for Ukraine has also been reduced to 23 million tons (-1.5 million tons), ending stocks – 0.85 million tons (-0.7 million tons).
USDA forecasts world corn production in the 2025/26 MY at 1,282.96 million tons (-3.27 million tons compared to the previous forecast). Estimated global corn exports are 205.1 million tons (+1.63 million tons), forecast ending stocks are 279.15 million tons (-2.19 million tons).
USDA analysts left unchanged the forecast for corn production in the United States at 425.53 million tons, forecast exports at 81.28 million tons (+3.17 million tons), ending stocks at 51.53 million tons (-3.18 million tons).
Forecast for major corn exporters for the MY 2025/26:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Export, mln tons | Stocks, mln tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 53 (0) | 37 (0) | 5,89 (+1,7) |
| Brazil | 131 (0) | 43 (0) | 3,53 (0) |
| Russia | 14,5 (+0,4) | 3 (0) | 1,06 (+0,1) |
| South Africa | 16,5 (0) | 2 (0) | 2,01 (+0,11) |
China’s corn harvest is estimated at 295 million tons. Imports will be 8 million tons, ending stocks will be 173.91 million tons.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
