USDA’s estimate of Ukraine’s wheat harvest forecast unchanged
USDA trimmed 2025/26 global wheat output to 841.8 MMT, cut ending stocks to 277.5 MMT, and raised exports to 221.96 MMT. Argentina and Canada exports increased, EU exports reduced. Ukraine and US outlook steady. China’s production seen at 140 MMT. Tighter stocks keep global wheat markets alert.
USDA has reduced its forecast for world wheat production in the MY 2025/26 by 0.37 million tons to 841.8 million tons, the ministry’s February report states.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 221.96 million tons (+2.2 million tons). Experts have reduced the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 277.51 million tons (-0.74 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine is unchanged – 23 million tons, exports will be at the level of 14 million tons, ending stocks – 1.63 million tons (-0.3 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is 54.01 million tons. The estimate for exports is also unchanged – 24.49 million tons, ending stocks – 25.34 million tons (+0.13 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2025/26:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Stocks, mln tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 27,8 (+0,3) | 18 (+2) | 4,31 (+1,7) |
| Australia | 37 (0) | 27 (0) | 5,12 (+0,03) |
| Canada | 39,96 (0) | 29 (+1) | 5,89 (-0,43) |
| EU | 144 (0) | 31,5 (-1) | 15,66 (+1,45) |
| Russia | 89,5 (0) | 44 (0) | 14,69 (0) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in MY 2025/26 at 140.07 million tons, import estimate — 6 million tons, ending stocks — 124.85 million tons.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
