Vietnam forecast to become world’s second-largest rice Importer by 2025–26
Vietnam is projected to become the world’s second-largest rice importer by 2025–26, behind the Philippines, as falling domestic production prompts more imports to meet export demand. The USDA forecasts Vietnam will import 4.1 million tonnes while exporting 7.9 million tonnes, surpassing Thailand. Most imports come from Cambodia for re-export and processing, despite strong domestic output and robust export growth.
Vietnam is projected to become the world’s second – largest rice importer in 2025-26, coming only after the Philippines, as the country must ramp up imports to meet export demand amid falls in domestic production, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The USDA estimates that Vietnam will import four million tonnes of rice in 2024-25 and 4.1 million tonnes in 2025-2026, while the Philippines – a traditional buyer of Vietnamese rice – is expected to remain the world’s largest importer of rice with demand at around 5.5 million tonnes annually.
At the same time, Vietnam is also predicted to surpass Thailand to become the world’s second-largest rice exporter. The country is estimated to export 7.9 million tonnes of rice for both 2024-25 and 2025-26, outpacing Thailand’s exports of seven million tonnes and 7.2 million tonnes, respectively.
India is forecast to remain the world’s largest rice exporter with a projected annual volume of around 24 million tonnes.
According to the USDA’s report on Vietnam grain and feed annual, published in April, Vietnam’s rice area and production are forecast to decline, as rice farmers switch to other, more profitable crops.
To meet export demand, Vietnam’s rice exporters and millers have been supplementing the domestic supply by purchasing paddy rice from Cambodia. Paddy rice accounts for 77 % of Vietnam’s imports and is mostly supplied by that nation. India also supplies most of Vietnam’s milled rice imports.
Vietnam’s rice imports are not the result of domestic shortages, Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Vietnam Food (VFA), said, adding that Vietnam mainly imports rice to serve re-export demand and for processing products such as noodles, vermicelli and rice paper.
Nam cited statistics which showed that Vietnam imported around 1.1 million tonnes of paddy, equivalent to 600,000 tonnes of rice, from Cambodia in the first two months of this year.
Vu Vinh Phu, former Deputy Director of Ha Noi Department of Trade, said that Vietnam’s rice exports are expected to remain robust for at least the next five years, despite emerging challenges from climate change, trade competition and shifting domestic demand.
Vietnam’s rice exports reached a record 9.04 million tonnes in 2024, up 11 % year-on-year, with an increase of 21 % in value to reach $5.7 billion. Meanwhile, rice imports totalled 3.7 million tonnes last year.
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Source : Nation Thailand
