Vietnam’s 5% broken white rice prices fall to over two-year low, lowest in Asia
Vietnamese rice prices dropped to a two-year low, with 5% broken white rice at $429/mt FOB on Jan. 7, due to weak demand and competition. Exporters face uncertainty as the winter/spring crop nears. While Thai prices may follow, Pakistani exporters expect stability. Vietnam remains the world’s second-largest rice exporter, forecasted to ship 7.8 million mt in 2025.
Vietnamese rice prices plummeted to the lowest level in over two years as well as the lowest in Asia Jan. 7, weighed by weak export demand and competitive pressure from other major suppliers amid anticipated fresh supply from the winter/spring crop in the country.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Vietnamese 5% broken white rice at $429/mt FOB on Jan. 7, down $70/mt month over month and $211/mt year over year. The price was the lowest since $426/mt FOB Nov. 22, 2022.
Platts assessed Indian-origin 5% broken rice at $439/mt FOB on Jan. 7 and Pakistani-origin 5% broken rice at $452/mt FOB Jan. 7, Commodity Insights data showed. Myanmar 5% broken rice was assessed at $474/mt FOB FCL Jan. 3 and Thai at $472/mt FOB Jan. 7.
The sharp decline in Vietnamese rice prices is likely to affect price trends in other Asian countries, as buyers look for the most competitive prices to purchase white rice.
Traders in Vietnam reported sluggish buying interest from key markets, including the Philippines, Vietnam’s top rice importer, and uncertainty surrounding future demand from Indonesia, which has indicated it may cease white rice imports in 2025.
Meanwhile, sources said the harvest of winter/spring crop, Vietnam’s biggest crop, is anticipated to begin in February, reaching its peak during March and April.
“We halted our offers last week due to significant volatility in local prices. We are closely monitoring the market,” a Vietnamese seller said, adding that prices in the Vietnamese rice market have dropped sharply amid weak demand from Philippine buyers.
As the situation evolves, exporters are trying to adapt to the changing market dynamics.
Meanwhile, a Vietnam-based trader said, “There are just two more weeks of work before the holidays, after which the new crop will arrive. Some sellers are offering at lower prices to clear their stocks, but currently, there is no significant demand in the market.”
This lack of demand has left many Vietnamese sellers anxious about their inventory levels.
“Exporters with significant stock levels will incur huge losses,” another seller said.
Mixed reactions in other origin markets
The recent drop in Vietnamese rice prices has also sparked mixed feelings among exporters in other origin markets. Some predict an overall bearish trend, while others remain optimistic that their markets will remain stable despite fluctuations in Vietnamese rice prices.
“[Rice] prices in Vietnam declined, and thus the Thai rice market will follow,” a Thai trader said, with another trader echoed this sentiment, noting that “Thai prices are correcting”.
Meanwhile, Pakistani exporters do not anticipate a major impact in the short term.
A Karachi-based exporter said, “The recent drop in prices from Vietnam isn’t expected to cause much instability in Pakistani WR prices. Our market is currently stable, supported by high local production costs and ongoing macroeconomic factors like inflation. However, if demand remains absent in January, we could see some bearish effects in the future. For now, we don’t anticipate any major impacts.”
The US Department of Agriculture has forecast that Vietnam will export 7.8 million mt of rice during the 2024-25 marketing year (January-December 2025), positioning it as the world’s second-largest rice exporter, after India. Meanwhile, Thailand is projected to secure the third spot, with expected rice exports of 7.7 million mt in the same marketing year.
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Source : S&P Global
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