Wheat Bulls Start Week Off With a Bang
Wheat prices surged Monday night, later pulling back. Friday saw mixed outcomes: Chicago settled ¾ lower to 2 higher, Kansas City futures rose 8 ½ to 11 ¼ cents, and MPLS spring wheat gained 7 ¼ to 10 ¼ cents. USDA’s total wheat sales are at 97% of the forecast. Taiwan seeks 96,850 MT of US wheat. Russia lowered export tax amid frost damage. Jul 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.97 1/4, down 3/4 cent.
Wheat prices were up sharply on Monday night, as the old market axiom “Wheat takes no prisoners” appears to still be in effect. They have backed off the overnight gains in attempt to fill the gap left at the open. The wheat complex went home mixed on Friday, as profit taking ahead of the Memorial Day weekend nudged the July and September CBT contracts into negative territory. Everything else was up. Chicago settled ¾ lower to 2 higher. Kansas City futures were up 8 ½ to 11 ¼ going home. MPLS spring wheat contracts gained 7 ¼ to 10 ¼ cents from Thursday to Friday, with nearby July up a stout 5.8% for the week.
Total wheat (and products) shipped and unshipped sales are now at 97% of USDA’s forecasted total, with just a couple weeks left in the MY. The average pace is for 105% in commitments by now, though actual Census shipping data is running well ahead. Looking ahead towards new crop, FAS data has 3.49 MMT in forward sales, which is 58% above the same point compared to last year.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated spec traders in Chicago wheat cutting another 3,658 contracts from their net short position to 24,593 contracts by May 21, the smallest since October 2022. In Kansas City futures, they trimmed just 503 contracts from that short position to 16,764 contracts as of Tuesday.
Taiwan is tendering for 96,850 MT of US origin wheat, with offers due on May 30. French soft wheat was rated at 63% gd/ex according to FranceAgriMer, down 1% on the week, with durum down 2% to 64% gd/ex. Russia lowered their export tax to 2,977.30 rubles/MT, effective through June 4. Their internal prices have been rising due to frost damage and dry weather that is restricting replanting. Some forecasts have light rains working into the afflicted region by mid-week. IKAR came out with another update to their Russian wheat production estimate, lowering it by another 2 MMT to 81.5 MMT on Monday. SovEcon also trimmed their projection by 3.6 MMT to 82.1 MMT.
Jul 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.97 1/4, down 3/4 cent, now up 6 cents
Sep 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $7.17 1/2, down 1/2 cent, now up 5 3/4 cents
Jul 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.21 1/4, up 10 1/2 cents, now up 9 3/4 cents
Sep 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.35 3/4, up 11 1/4 cents, now up 9 cents
Jul 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.52 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents, now up 9 1/4 cents
Sep 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.62 1/2, up 8 1/4 cents, now up 6 1/4 cents
Source Link : https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/wheat-bulls-start-week-off-with-a-bang
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