Wheat prices in Ukraine rose to 11,000 UAH/t due to low harvest rates and increased export demand
Wheat prices in the Black Sea region surged due to delayed harvests and farmer sales restrictions in Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainian wheat reached \$232/t, while Russian prices rose to \$240/t FOB. Despite strong physical market prices, futures lag as global buyers await increased supply and clearer export prospects.
Delayed harvests and curbs on wheat sales by farmers in both Ukraine and Russia have led to further speculative increases in wheat prices in the Black Sea region. Forecasts of additional rainfall in Ukraine in the coming week are increasing traders’ concerns about meeting contract deadlines, according to which ships are to be loaded in July-August.
Purchase prices for Ukrainian food wheat this week reached the level of 10,900-11,000 UAH/t or $228-232/t with delivery to Black Sea ports (this level in the MY 2024/25 was reached at the end of February 2025), and for feed wheat – 10,500-10,600 UAH/t or $222-225/t.
Prices are also supported by rising prices for Russian wheat, which rose by $10/t in a week due to a 30% lower wheat harvest in the Rostov region than last year and delayed harvesting in other regions due to rainfall.
According to Rusagrotrans, export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein and delivery in July-August increased by $10/t to $240/t FOB per week (5 months ago they were $250/t), while prices for Romanian wheat increased by $5/t to $240/t FOB, French wheat by $3/t to $239/t FOB, Argentine wheat by $2/t to $231/t FOB, while American wheat fell by $5/t to $219/t FOB, and Australian wheat by $2/t to $254/t FOB.
Recall that Black Sea wheat was contracted at tenders in Tunisia, Algeria, and Egypt at a price of $245-255/t with delivery, so traders’ purchase prices should be $220-225/t at ports, which means they are now buying grain at a loss.
It is worth noting that stock market quotes for wheat do not increase in line with physical market prices, since there are not many buyers on the world market willing to buy wheat at such high prices as have developed on the physical Black Sea market.
September soft winter wheat futures in Chicago are trading at $198.6/t, and on the Paris Euronext exchange at €199.5/t or $235/t.
In a week or two, when the supply of the new wheat crop in Europe, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation increases, demand prices may decrease slightly against the backdrop of reduced export demand, as importers have already covered their needs and will wait for the completion of the harvest and the increase in supply for new purchases.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
