Wheat rises from two-month low as traders weigh Russian supply
Chicago wheat futures rebounded on Tuesday due to uncertainty surrounding Russia’s reduced harvest forecast and India’s potential grain imports, lifting prices from recent lows. Meanwhile, soybean and corn futures held steady amidst concerns over U.S. crop conditions impacted by heat and subsequent flooding. Argus lowered Russia’s wheat production estimate to 79.5 million metric tons, contrasting with earlier forecasts. U.S. wheat harvest progress, weather disruptions in the Black Sea, and varied crop conditions in Europe further influenced market sentiments. Speculative positioning in CBOT futures reflected cautious adjustments amid global market fluctuations.
CANBERRA, – Chicago wheat futures rose on Tuesday, as uncertainty over the size of Russia’s harvest and India’s potential to import grain lifted prices from two-month lows.
Soybean and corn futures were flat as investors weighed the impact of heat and then flooding in U.S. cropping zones.
FUNDAMENTALS
* The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was up 0.4% at $5.73-1/2 a bushel by 0053 GMT after falling to $5.64 on Monday, the lowest since April 19.
* CBOT corn was down 0.1% at $4.33-1/4 a bushel after falling to its lowest since April 2 on Monday, while soybeans were almost unchanged at $11.30-1/4 a bushel having traded in the previous session at their lowest level since 2020.
* Argus cut its wheat production forecast for Russia, the biggest exporter, to a three-year low of 79.5 million metric tons.
* The prediction is well below estimates from leading Russian consultants Sovecon and IKAR and comes as Russian export prices continue to decline amid early harvesting data showing high yields.
* An Indian government official, meanwhile, said the country has imposed limits on wheat stocks that traders can hold and may abolish or trim the import tax on the grain, potentially increasing India’s draw on global wheat supply.
* Supply of new wheat is however maintaining pressure on prices, with the U.S. wheat harvest 40% complete, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday, ahead of the five-year average of 25%.
* Weather concerns hung over agricultural markets, with forecast dryness in the Black Sea region likely to stunt corn yields and heavy rain after near-record temperatures in the United States threatening to take a toll on crops.
* The condition of the U.S. corn and soybean crops deteriorated last week but ratings were still the highest for this time of the season in four years, U.S. government data showed.
* European Union crop monitoring service MARS lowered most of its yield forecasts for this year’s crops in the bloc, citing excess water in western Europe and dry weather in some southeastern countries.
* Large speculators trimmed their net short position in CBOT Trade corn futures in the week to June 18 while increasing their short positions in wheat and soybeans, regulatory data showed.
MARKETS NEWS
* Global stock indexes were mixed on Monday ahead of a key U.S. inflation reading due this week, while the dollar eased slightly against the yen from levels that put investors on alert for Japanese intervention.
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